Monday Musings – Duke heads down the stretch

duke vs bellarmine 080The week ahead is a big one for Duke Athletics as the Men's Basketball team takes on N.C. State on Thursday evening in Cameron Indoor Stadium before traveling to Boston College for another road game on Saturday. Meanwhile, there is a little thing happening on Wednesday called football signing day, when players from around the country will seal their college decisions by sending in their official letters of intent.

Rematch looms

It was less than four weeks ago that N.C. State defeated a Ryan Kelly-less Duke team, knocking the Blue Devils from the ranks of the undefeated. Well, Duke will still be without the services of Kelly, but this time it is uncertain as to whether injured N.C. State point guard Lorenzo Brown will be available. The Pack is coming off a last second loss (without Brown) to ACC league leader Miami. They'll surely feel that their backs against the wall in Cameron, a site which more often than not brings out their best. It should be another tense game and while the Pack will be trying to right the ship, it is almost a must-win situation for Duke if they want to remain in the chase for the ACC regular season title. The Pack matches up better with Duke than do most conference teams, in that they have a solid one-two punch in the front court of C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell -- who is perhaps the most underappreciated star in the league. After Miami, it is a crowded ACC race, and the winner of this game will have a big leg up moving forward.

Speaking of Ryan Kelly

You have heard the old phrase "if I had a dime for every time ...."  Well, if I had a dime for every time somebody asked me about when Kelly would return, I would have a hundred dollar bill. Ask ten people and you'll get ten different answers.  As always, unfounded rumors abound on the web, as fans desperate for information increasingly believe just about anything they read, without bothering to check out the source's credentials. I can tell you that Kelly is getting closer to a return, and awhile back I told our members, "Think Boston College."  Duke plays the Eagles this Saturday and again on February 24th and I feel Kelly will be back within that time frame. Anyhow, nobody is going to rush Kelly back.  Once they get him back, the team needs him to remain on the court for the duration of the season, without relapses or setbacks. It's hard enough for a team to adjust its chemistry, its roles, and its rotations even once in mid-season.  Two or three times?  Much, much more difficult.

Duke will continue to hover ...

.... in the top five of the latest A.P. poll due out just after noon today. I'm not expecting a lot of movement in the polls where Duke is currently ranked fifth in the country, but fourth is not out of the question with Kansas losing. I think Michigan will not fall very far at all after their loss at Indiana. N.C. State will likely be just holding on to a spot in the polls, again, making them hungry to show the nation they can be consistent.

And just like that ....

There are only ten regular season games left on the schedule for Duke. Maybe it's the fact I am getting old, but man, has this season flown by. And Duke of course gets arch-rival North Carolina twice in those final ten games, on February 13th in Cameron and March 9th in Chapel Hill. This stretch of the season should prove more than a little interesting.  And how many have March 2nd circled on their calendars, when Miami comes to town?

Seniors have just five more home games

Wow. There are just five more home games for Mason Plumlee, Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly in the Duke uniform. I hope all the Crazies will give them a phenomenal send-off. I get to know the quality of the young men while covering the recruiting trail, and these are three really good guys. It'll be time to reflect soon enough.

Football Signing Day

Our members know that our football recruiting information is second to none on the web, and we'll certainly be in place when David Cutcliffe and company start to receive prospects' letters of intent. Look for BDN's Patrick Cacchio to have lots of great information and insights, and check back into our archives to read about the prospects who hope to continue to build Duke Football into a consistent winner.

A little bit about the site

We've been in the process of rethinking Blue Devil Nation a bit.  We've been slow to move on some of the changes, but you will see them moving forward. We'll be introducing a couple of new writers who have the qualities we have been looking for, and recruiting is about to heat up around here again in a big way. After fielding several inquiries to join a group or network, we've decided to remain an independent site. That means we have to work a little harder. It may take until the off-season to get some things in place, but the goal is to continue to serve the Blue Devil Nation with solid, dependable information and full beat coverage.  We have assembled a team of what we consider to be true experts in recruiting and coverage, and that should become even more evident as we move forward.

Confident Duke takes it to the Noles for road win

SONY DSCDuring his post-game press conference after the Duke Blue Devils defeated Maryland in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Mike Krzyzewski reflected back on the earlier road defeat to Miami. "Sometimes you just need to see the ball go in the basket," said the coach, in reference to the Blue Devils' weak offensive effort in the blowout loss to the league-leading Hurricanes.

While of course much of the game of basketball is physical, Coach K was reminding anyone who would listen that the mental aspects are just as important, especially as a long season grinds on. Let's face it: there have been zero seasons without any adversity. In the end, it is how a team adjusts to those tough times that tells the tale.

As usual, there is a lot of truth to what Coach K said, and the mental aspect of the game certainly played a part in the Blue Devils' early road woes, as they lost to N.C. State and Miami. It took Duke the whole game to put Wake Forest away, before getting out of Winston-Salem with the win. And just like seeing the ball fall helps a player get it going on offense, breaking through with that first road victory can be a a big confidence builder for an entire team.

Fast forward to Florida State. This was a matchup that had more than a few nervous, especially considering the recent success the Noles have enjoyed against Duke. A sold-out arena once again awaited the Blue Devils, and there were surely many who quite reasonably believed that this Duke team was beatable without the services of injured senior Ryan Kelly. They were undoubtedly rubbing their hands together at the thought of how they'd rush the court if their team were to pull the upset -- and it seemed like they would have a reasonable chance to do so.

But Duke had other ideas. They roared out to an 11-0 lead before the ushers could return to their seats after the national anthem. Duke came out focused on the job at hand -- and one could just sense that the road win over Wake Forest had gotten this team over the hump, paying big dividends in terms of the team's confidence.

Everything worked well for the Blue Devils today. Krzyzewski played his bench for extended minutes, including spelling Mason Plumlee for big minutes in the first half after he picked up his second foul. The Blue Devils' guards were as good as they've been all season, combining for 54 total points in the lopsided 79-60 win. And the Duke defense? It was hard for the Noles to find open looks; team leader Micheal Snaer went 3-13 from the field, totalling a paltry 7 points.

What you are seeing is a team finally adjusting to the absence of Kelly, and settling into their redefined roles. Everyone expected that it would be so easy to do that, because it's Duke, but the reality is that any team, and any coaching staff, would need time to re-calibrate after losing such a critical player and leader as Kelly.
In fact, having the league's longest tenured staff has eased the transition, or it would have taken even longer. But I must go back and emphasize the mental aspect. Just seeing a little success, like the ball going though the basket or getting that first road win, has been a huge factor in righting the ship.

Rough waters for that ship may be on the horizon again, though, as N.C. State invades Cameron this week. It was just over two weeks ago, remember, that the Wolfpack knocked the Blue Devils from the ranks of the unbeaten and from their perch atop the national rankings in Duke's first game without Kelly. The question is: can Duke keep its positive momentum going with a win over a quality team, and restore its confidence further as they move forward in a season where there still will be more ebbs and flows.

Gameday Preview – Duke at Florida State

NCAA BASKETBALL: FEB 09 North Carolina at DukeDuke travels to Tallahassee for its second straight road game, Saturday at 2pm, hoping to even its ACC road record.

Back when the schedule was announced, this game was circled as one of the most dangerous league games of the season, along with Miami, NC State, and UNC. And while no ACC road game is easy, especially for a team like Duke playing without one of its most important players, Florida State has not lived up to its pre-season billing.

Since the calendar turned to 2013, FSU has two close victories each over Clemson and Maryland and has lost its other four games, including a less-than-impressive stumble against a woeful Auburn team, a 20 point shellacking at Virginia, and a 71-47 loss at Miami for which I refuse to employ any clever adjectives or active verbs because, well glass houses and all that. The Seminoles' overall record is 12-8 and their ACC tally is 4-3.

Unless they've taken some sort of memory erasure therapy, Duke fans probably remember Michael Snaer hitting a buzzer beater to beat Duke at Cameron last season, followed by a similar game-winner against Virginia Tech a few weeks later. Well, Florida State's last two wins were both capped by Snaer last-second game-winning buzzer beaters, at home against Clemson on January 24 and then again at home against Maryland on January 30. Their win before that, all the way back on January 9 and also against Maryland, was secured by a Snaer block with two seconds left.

Snaer doesn't entirely save his heroics for when the game's on the line, however. The 6'5" senior is FSU's leading scorer with 14.2 points per game and also leads the team in minutes played (30.7) and assists (2.5), although his assist to turnover ratio is a paltry 0.86 (48 assists to 56 turnovers).

Turnovers, in fact, are a big weakness for Florida State. They've coughed the ball up this season more than any ACC team except Maryland. (Duke, by comparison has committed the second fewest turnovers in the conference.) The Seminoles have also not been particularly impressive at shooting (44.1%, 7th in the conference) or offensive rebounding (9th in the ACC). Overall, FSU is 10th in the ACC in points per possession.

And the funny thing is, according to Pomeroy the 93rd ranked Seminoles are worse at defense (121st in the country) than they are at offense (85th). They rank dead last in the ACC in defensive rebounds per game. This is not the Florida State to which we've grown accustomed over the past few seasons.

They go 10 deep and play at a pace similar to Duke's. Other than Snaer their most productive player has been 6'8" junior Okaro White, who has scored 12.7 points per game and has been the team's most efficient offensive player, with a 117.5 offensive rating. Other starters include 6'7" freshman wing Montay Brandon, who despite his height is not a great rebounder (2.5 offensive rebounding percentage and 8.3 defensive rebounding percentage) and has been a dreadful offensive player (77.8 oRating). Their other starting wing is 6'3" sophomore Terry Whisnant II, who scores 6.6 ppg with a 108.0 oRating. Their starting center is 7'0 junior Kiel Turpin, son of former Kentucky All American Mel Turpin, who is an adequate but not spectacular rebounder (8.5 off reb pct; 12.3 def reb pct) and only plays 13.2 minutes per game.

The bench is led by 6'8" redshirt junior Terrance Shannon, the team's third-leading scorer with 8.5 ppg (although at an inefficient 89.1 oRating) and a solid rebounder (12.2 off reb pct; 20.2 def reb pct), and 6'3" freshman point guard Devon Bookert, who has a 114.3 oRating, 25.1 assist percentage and a 1.6 a/to ratio. 6'3" junior Ian Miller, expected to be a big contributor this season, has had injury issues and is only scoring 6.3 ppg with a career low 31.1% percentage from three-point range. Other bench players with more than 10 mpg include 6'5" freshman Aaron Thomas and 7'3" 240 pound freshman Boris Bojanovsky. The latter only plays 11.2 mpg and isn't much of a rebounder for his height (8.4 off reb pct; 12.0 def reb pct), perhaps due to his slight frame, but for a freshman big has a serviceable 108.3 oRating.

On the other side, Duke comes in trying to ease the memory of its last trip to Florida. The Devils are coming off a 20 point home win against Maryland and a tough 5 point win at Wake Forest. Still adapting to life without Ryan Kelly, Duke has relied on fellow seniors Mason Plumlee (career high 32 points against Wake) and Seth Curry (second in the ACC with nine 20+ point games this season including a 21 point effort against Wake). Sophomore Quinn Cook added 12 points against Wake (meaning Duke's three top scorers tallied 65 of Duke's 75 points against the Demon Deacons) and, averaging 11.2 points and 6.3 assists per game, is attempting to join Dick Groat (1952), Bobby Hurley (1991, 1992), Jason Williams (2000, 2001) and Chris Duhon (2004) as the only players in Duke history to average at least 10.0 points and 6.0 assists per game.

From a matchup perspective, Duke again should have a big advantage inside with Mason Plumlee. Seth Curry will have his hands full being guarded by 2012 ACC All-Defensive team member Snaer, who is also several inches taller than Curry. If Snaer can contain Curry and FSU doubles Plumlee (as most teams have done recently and Wake didn't to their detriment), it means our supporting cast is going to have to step up for Duke to win the game. Duke's three-headed tandem at power forward (Amile Jefferson, Josh Hairston, and Alex Murphy) will need to keep White and Shannon off the offensive glass and not let FSU's 2nd and 3rd leading scorers go off on career games. Presumably Rasheed Sulaimon will draw the assignment of guarding Snaer, and that will also be a key matchup.

Pomeroy predicts Duke by 12 in this game, but FSU usually plays its absolute best against Duke. I expect them to hang tough early. Ultimately, their defense probably isn't tough enough to contain Duke for the full 40 minutes and their offense isn't strong enough to win a high-octane shootout. Florida State's hope is to keep the game tight until the end and hope for more Snaer heroics. Duke obviously would like a decent working margin going into the last few minutes.