[10 AP / 9 Coaches] Duke (19-4, 6-2) vs. [5 AP / 5 Coaches] North Carolina (20-3, 7-1)

Wednesday, February 8, 2012 • 9:00 p.m. • ESPN/ACC Network

The Opening Tip

• Duke (19-4, 6-2) faces North Carolina (20-3, 7-1) on Wednesday, Feb. 8 in Chapel Hill. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m.

• Dan Shulman (play-by-play), Dick Vitale (analyst), Jay Bilas (analyst) and Erin Andrews (sideline) will call the game for ESPN.

• Tim Brando (play-by-play) and Dan Bonner (analyst) will call the game locally for the ACC Network.

• Duke is ranked No. 10 in the AP Poll and No. 9 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll. North Carolina is ranked No. 5 in both polls. Duke is 36-13 when ranked No. 10 in the AP Poll.

• Wednesday’s game marks the 32nd time in the last 65 meetings, both Duke and North Carolina have been ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll.

Duke-North Carolina Series

• Duke and North Carolina have met 232 times heading into Wednesday’s game with the first meeting between the two schools coming on Jan. 24, 1920.

• Mike Krzyzewski is 36-36 all-time against North Carolina, with an 11-14 mark at the Dean E. Smith Center. Krzyzewski did not coach either game against North Carolina during the 1994-95 season.

• Duke has won four of the last five in the series, including a 75-58 win over North Carolina in the 2011 ACC Championship game, the last meeting between the two schools.

• Duke has won 21 of the last 31 games in the series dating back to the 1998-99 season. The Blue Devils have won eight of the last 13 games in Chapel Hill in that span.

Numbers Game

l Duke has been ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll for 88 straight weeks, the third-longest streak in NCAA history.

l Duke has not lost back-to-back games since February of 2009. The Blue Devils are 14-0 following a loss in that span (does not include season-ending loss in 2010-11).

l The Blue Devils have a +14.6 scoring margin in their last 14 games following a loss. Duke has posted a double-figure win in 10 of the 14 contests.

l Duke is one win shy of reaching the 20-win plateau for the 16th consecutive season. The Blue Devils have won 20 or more games 26 times under Mike Krzyzewski.

l When coming off a loss this season, Duke averages 80.7 points per game. Mason Plumlee averages a double-double at 15.3 points and 10.0 rebounds in those three contests, while Ryan Kelly (14.3 points) and Austin Rivers (11.7 points) both average double-figures when coming off a loss.

l Austin Rivers was named ACC Rookie of the Week for the league-leading sixth time on Monday. He ties former Blue Devil Luol Deng for the most ACC rookie awards in Duke history and ties five others for the third-most in ACC history.

l Mason Plumlee is one of two players (joined by Keith Clanton, Central Florida) in the NCAA averaging at least 10.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.5 blocks per game.

l Ryan Kelly has increased his scoring average by 6.0 ppg. from a year ago and is tied for second on the team at 12.6 points per game. Kelly has scored in double figures 15 times this season after doing that just nine times in his first two seasons.

l Seth Curry averaged 17.7 points in three games against North Carolina last season. He topped the 20-point mark twice against the Tar Heels and was 11-of-21 (.524) from three-point range in the three contests.

l Mason Plumlee ranks second in the ACC in rebounding at 9.7 rpg. He has grabbed 12 or more rebounds 10 times this season including three of the last four games.

l Austin Rivers ranks 12th among freshman in scoring with a team-high 14.5 points per game. Johnny Dawkins was the last Blue Devil freshman to lead the team in scoring in 1983.

l Mason Plumlee has improved his free throw shooting over the last four games, going 24-of-32 (.750) from the line during that span. He was shooting 39.8 percent (37-of-93) from the free throw line prior to that stretch. Plumlee ranks fourth in the ACC in free throw attempts per game (5.4 ftpg.).

l Andre Dawkins is averaging 10.8 points and 2.6 three-point field goals per game in ACC play. He is 21-of-49 (.429) from long range in league games.

More on the Series vs. North Carolina

• Duke and North Carolina have met 74 times during the Coach K era. The Blue Devils are 36-36 versus the Tar Heels with Mike Krzyzewski as the head coach. Krzyzewski missed both games against North Carolina during the 1994-95 season while recovering from back surgery.

• Wednesday’s game marks the 149th straight meeting between Duke and North Carolina in which at least one of the schools is ranked in a national poll. The streak dates back to Feb. 25, 1955.

• Since the beginning of the AP poll in 1948-49, at least one of the teams has been ranked in 152 of the 168 meetings (counting Wednesday’s game).

• This is the 133rd straight game with at least one team ranked in the AP poll. That streak dates back to Feb. 27, 1960. Of those 133 games, 121 of the games have featured a team in the top 10.

• In 32 of the last 65 meetings, both Duke and North Carolina have been ranked in the top 10.

• Both teams have been ranked in the top 25 in 50 of the 74 meetings under Coach K. Both teams have been ranked in 50 of the last 66 meetings.

• Duke and North Carolina have played 69 times all-time when both teams were ranked in the top 25. Duke is 34-35 in those games, including a 27-22 mark under Coach K.

• The Blue Devils and Tar Heels have met 42 times with both teams ranked in the top 10. The series is tied 21-21, including a 15-16 record under Mike Krzyzewski, when both teams are ranked in the top 10.

• The two teams have played 10 times when both teams were ranked in the top-five of the AP poll.

• The Duke-North Carolina game has been decided by 10 points or less in 38 of the 74 meetings under Coach K.

• In 12 of the last 46 meetings between the two schools, Duke has entered the game as the nation’s top-ranked team. Duke is 7-5 in those contests. Overall, Duke has played 17 times (10-7) as the No. 1 team against North Carolina, including 14 times (8-6) under Coach K.

• During the Coach K era, Duke and North Carolina have played five overtime games (Duke, 3-2), including one double-overtime (North Carolina, 1-0) contest.

• At least one team has been ranked in 150 of the 153 meetings since the ACC was formed in 1953-54.

• Sports Illustrated on Campus named the Duke-UNC rivalry the No. 1 “Hottest Rivalry” in college basketball and the No. 2 rivalry overall in its Nov. 18, 2003 issue.

• Duke and North Carolina have accounted for 36 of the 58 Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Championships. Duke has an ACC-best 18 conference championships, including 13 ACC titles under Mike Krzyzewski.

• Either Duke or North Carolina has played in the NCAA Final Four in 22 of the last 31 years.

Not suprisingly, there have been a lot of upsets along the way as upsets are situation normal in college basketball.

Let’s start by comparing the predictions to current standings:

Prediction Current Standings

1. Duke 1. Duke (7-2)
2. North Carolina 2. Maryland (6-2)
3. Maryland 3. Wake Forest (6-3)
4. Clemson 4. Virginia Tech (5-3)
5. Florida State 5. Virginia (5-3)
6. Georgia Tech 6. Florida State (5-4)
7. Wake Forest 7. Georgia Tech (5-4)
8. Boston College 8. Clemson (4-5)
9. Virginia Tech 9. Boston College (3-6)
10. Virginia 10. North Carolina (2-6)
11. Miami 11. Miami (2-7)
12. N.C. State 12. N.C. State (2-7)

It is important to address first things first and I predicted Duke would end the regular season in first place, and at the halfway point, there are the Blue Devils positioned atop the ACC with a one-half game lead over Maryland.

Duke leads the ACC in scoring offense (81.4), scoring margin (+18.4), free throw percentage (.757), 3-point field goal percentage (.390), and offensive rebounding percentage (.408). The Blue Devils have been dominant at home and evened their conference road record at 2-2 with Saturday’s win at Boston College.

With three of the remaining seven conference games being in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke has a strong shot at finishing the regular season at 13-3 or 12-4. Winning out and finishing 14-2 isn’t beyond the realm of possibility, but there is a very tough game at Maryland still on the schedule and everyone knows anything can happen in the two games against the arch rival Tar Heels.

And at the bottom, Miami and N.C. State are right where I expected them to be – in last place. So my predictions were solid at the top and bottom. I do not expect anything to change over the second half of the season for these two teams. Boston College will challenge for the basement.

Topping the “not so brilliant” category is my prediction North Carolina would finish second. In fact, the Tar Heels are 2-6 in conference play and have lost six of their last seven games. However, I will refrain from any in-depth analysis of the boys in pale blue until after Wednesday night’s game.

Predicting Virginia would finish 10th is also not making me look too bright at the halfway mark. The Cavaliers have been impressive at times with several nice wins. However, Virginia has a brutal schedule from this point going forward so their position in the standings will steadily fall. With games at Maryland, at Virginia Tech and at Clemson; and home against Florida State, Duke and Maryland, it is hard to see how the Cavaliers finish with more than eight conference wins.

A half game out of first place, Maryland is, as expected, one of the top teams in the conference. Coach Gary Williams always has his team ready for big games and this year is no exception. The Terrapins have a big game at Duke this coming weekend and also have to face Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke at home down the stretch. Greivis Vasquez is one of the top players in the conference and a legitimate threat to take over a game at anytime. I fully expect Maryland to finish strong and end up in second place with a 12-4 or 11-5 record.

Wake Forest is currently in third place one full game behind Duke. The Demon Deacons have road games remaining at Virginia Tech, at N.C. State, and at Florida State; and play Boston College, Georgia Tech, UNC, and Clemson at home. Wake Forest should finish the season no worse than 10-6.

At 4-5, Clemson’s season has to be deemed a bit of a disappointment. The Tigers have lost four of their last five games. At this point, priority number one for Coach Oliver Purnell has to be a healthy Demontez Stitt. He has been slowed and Clemson is a different team when he is 100 percent. I believe Clemson will end the year at 8-8.

Virginia Tech is currently 5-3 and tied for fourth place with Virginia. The Hokies have tough games remaining at Duke and at Georgia Tech; and home against Wake Forest and Maryland. Virginia Tech will finish in the muddy middle at 8-8.

Georgia Tech and Florida State are tied for sixth place at 5-4. These two teams will be fighting it out for fourth place and the final first round bye at the ACC Tournament. I believe Georgia Tech has the superior talent and will grab the last bye.

The four ACC teams who will earn a first round bye are: Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech. I’ve changed my mind on 50 percent of the teams. Duke and Maryland are my consistent picks, while North Carolina and Clemson have been replaced by Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.

There is a lot of basketball left to be played between now and the start of the ACC Tournament, 44 conference games to be exact, and there will certainly be plenty of upsets along the way so everyone should kick back and enjoy the stretch run of the regular season before gearing up for March Madness.

- Just as important as recruiting is the fact that David Cutcliffe managed to keep all but one of his staff members at Duke.  After flirting with one of his two dream jobs, Cutcliffe seems entrenched in Durham for the remainder of his career.

- Of course the aforementioned helps with recruiting for Duke signed all 19 players during yesterdays signing day not including a talented JUCO transfer.

- The Duke Football staff is known for their friendliness and family like atmosphere on the recruiting trail and each coach is assigned specific duties  Make no mistake though in that Marrion Hobby stood out from the bunch this season helping Duke to land kids at key positions.

- The crown jewel of Duke Football’s recruiting class is Laken Tomlinson, a Super Prep All American lineman, but the kid which may have the most impact could be Josh Snead from Smithfield, North Carolina who brings more speed to the table for the Blue Devils

- The Duke Women are ranked 6th in the country and their rival UNC is coming to town next week.  Don’t you think it’s time to get out and support Coach P’s troops in this one?

- A trap awaits.  Suppose Coach K’s troops get by Georgia Tech tonight … how hard is it to turn around and fly to Boston for a 2:00 start on Saturday?

- If you are in Cameron tonight, remind yourself that Jon Scheyer has just five more games in the hallowed venue.

- 24 days.  Duke plays ACC rival UNC twice in 24 days, yet  they will have already played Georgia Tech and Boston College twice before that happens.

Last year, Clemson embarrassed Duke 74-47 in the game at Littlejohn. The Tigers’ press resulted in 16 Blue Devil turnovers. Duke will need to be prepared to deal with Clemson’s pressure defense as Clemson is number one in the ACC in steals averaging 11.4 per game.

Duke and Clemson have had two common opponents on the season. Clemson went on the road and defeated UNC-Greensboro 89-67, while Duke defeated the Spartans 96-62 in Cameron Indoor Stadium. The second common opponent is Long Beach State. Clemson defeated the 49ers, on a neutral court, at the 76 Classic in Anaheim 87-79, while Duke won 84-63 in Cameron.

Senior Trevor Booker (6’7″ 240) is Clemson’s best player. He averages 14.8 points and 8.9 rebounds per game in 28.5 minutes of action. Booker was named Second Team All ACC last season and is playing like a First Team candidate so far this season. Booker will challenge Duke inside with athleticism and physical play.

Sophomore Tanner Smith (6’5″ 220) and Junior Demontez Stitt (6’2″ 175) average 10.8 and 10.1 points respectively. Stitt leads the team with a 3.9 assists per game average.

Sophomore Andre Young (5’9″ 170) and Senior David Potter (6’6″ 215) provide the 3-point shooting punch for the Tigers. Potter is making 45.3 percent of his long range attempts while Young is making 39.7 percent. Clemson is 3rd in the ACC with 7.1 made 3-pointers per game. Duke is first at 8.8.

Off the bench, Devon Booker (6’8″ 235) and Jerai Grant (6’8″ 220) chip in 5.8 and 5.5 points per game. Freshmen Noel Johnson and Milton Jennings also average double digit minutes to give the Tigers a solid nine man rotation.

The keys to the game will be:

1. Taking care of the basketball. Duke must neutralize Clemson’s fullcourt press by passing over it and quickly advancing the ball into the frontcourt. Duke’s big men’s passing skills and ability to run the court will be critical to the outcome.

2. Physical inside play. Trevor Booker and company are going to challenge Duke inside with physical play. Duke’s five man frontcourt rotation is going to have to play the Tigers tough. Foul trouble could be an issue for both team’s big men.

3. Backcourt dominance. Scheyer, Smith, and Singler have an advantage over Clemson’s backcourt and they need to press that advantage for 40 minutes. Clemson will look to run their offense through Trevor Booker so Duke must harass Clemson’s backcourt and prevent them from feeding the ball inside. Clemson turns the ball over 15 times a game.

This game is the beginning of a three game litmus test for Duke’s frontcourt. Iowa State and Georgia Tech are also tough inside teams. We will all know a lot more about our inside players’ strengths and weaknesses once these three games are in the books.

Trevor Booker is a beast inside and Miles and Mason Plumlee need to respond to the challenge. In the backcourt, Duke has a huge advantage in both talent and experience. This is a game where both teams are going to attempt to dictate the style of play. For Duke to come away with the win, they must handle Clemson’s press and match Clemson’s physical play.

BDN Photo - Nolan Smith

Here is the official word from Duke Sports Information -
“Sophomore guard Nolan Smith is probable for Duke’s opening round game of the ACC Tournament on Friday. Smith has missed the Blue Devils last three games after suffering a mild concussion on Feb. 25 at Maryland. He is averaging 8.5 points and 2.3 rebounds per game in 28 contests this season.”

We fully expect him to play in that he has been practicing close to full speed.