Virginia at Duke
12:30 PM ET
Saturday, October 18
Durham, NC
TV: ACC Network (Affiliates)
Radio: Blue Devil IMG Sports Network, Sirius Ch 92 and XM Ch 194
Duke in 2014: 5-1 (1-1 ACC)
Virginia in 2014: 4-2 (2-0 ACC)

DUKE INJURIES

PROBABLE
DE Dezmond Johnson (leg)
RB Shaquille Powell (leg) 

OUT
TE Dan Beilinson (upper body)
CB Johnathan Lloyd (lower body)
OL Trip McNeill (lower body)
DT Jamal Wallace (lower body)

VIRGINIA INJURIES

OUT
John Babcock (lower extremity)
Ryan Doull (medical)
Michael Guerci (lower extremity)
Tyler Lewris (lower extremity)
Jackson Matteo (lower extremity)
Demetrious Nicholson (lower extremity)
Jay Whitmire (medical)
Andrew Will (medical)

It's Homecoming Weekend in Durham as the Blue Devils play host to the Coastal Division leading Virginia Cavaliers. Duke mounted an impressive comeback a year ago to defeat UVA 35-22 in Charlottesville. Under Coach Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils have won 5 of 6 games against the Wahoos, but still trail the all-time series 32-33.

HOW DUKE CAN WIN

Ball security, ball security, ball security. Virginia ranks second in the country in takeaways with 19 through their first 6 games. Ten of those turnovers were fumbles, and seven of those were quarterback fumbles. Anthony Boone will will have to place great value on the football on Saturday, especially avoiding junior DB Maurice Canady in the secondary and senior DE Henry Coley in the backfield. Freshman safety Quin Blanding leads the ACC in tackles, and junior DE Eli Harold is another explosive pass-rusher. Simply put, the Virginia defense is loaded with playmakers, and will be the toughest test for this Blue Devil offense all year.

Duke will have to win the battle in the trenches to win the game on Saturday. It's strength vs. strength, as the Blue Devils have averaged 225 yards rushing and 6.0 yards per carry through the first half of their season, while the Wahoos allow only 91.5 yards rushing and 2.7 yards per carry.  Similarly, Virginia has totaled 23 sacks on the season while Duke has allowed just 4. In all likelihood, the winner of the battle in the trenches will ultimately be the winner on the scoreboard.

HOW VIRGINIA CAN WIN

After a tough 2013, Mike London and his staff have found a formula for success in 2014; it all starts with this Virginia defense. The Cavaliers' have an experienced secondary, but the strength is in the front seven. This group completely shut down one of the top rushers in the country in their last outing against Pittsburgh. They sacked UCLA's Brett Hundley 5 times. They held a strong BYU rushing attack to under 4.0 yards per carry. Ten fumble recoveries and nine interceptions on the season have led to extra possessions for their offense. Expect the Virginia front 7 to focus on stopping the Blue Devil rushing attack, forcing Duke into obvious passing situations. Much like Miami, the Cavaliers believe they can match up with Duke's receivers, and will dare Anthony Boone to beat them with his arm.

Offensively, Virginia features two seniors at the skill positions in RB Kevin Parks and WR Darius Jennings. Parks averages 71 rushing yards per game, while Jennings has already caught 13 receptions of 20 or more yards. Sophomore Greyson Lambert appears poised to return this week, but Duke is likely to see some of fellow sophomore Matt Johns as well. An inexperienced offensive line has performed well thus far, allowing just 5 sacks on the season.

WHY DUKE WILL WIN

Over the past two seasons, Duke is 7-0 when favored at Wallace Wade Stadium. Under Coach Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils are 5-1 against UVA and 3-0 at home. For whatever reason, Duke seems to have Virginia's number. Expect this to be a highly competitive Coastal Division showdown, with the Blue Devils pulling away in the second half behind Anthony Boone's best game of 2014. Duke's defense will be bolstered by the return of Dez Johnson and have success slowing the Cavaliers' offense. Jim Knowles and his defense continue to find ways to stall opponents in the red zone; when the Duke defense is on the field,  Jeremy Cash will once again prove to be the best player on the field. A few key special teams plays will give Duke a boost, and Max McCaffrey will again fight his way into the end zone.

BOTTOM LINE

If we've learned anything, it's that anything can happen in the ACC Coastal Division. The Duke offense will face a stiff test on Saturday, but redshirt-senior QB Anthony Boone and his slowly-healing receivers appear poised for a break-out game.

Duke 31, Virginia 27