DURHAM, N.C. - The N.C. State (18-7, 7-3 ACC) at Duke (21-4, 8-2 ACC)  matchup has a lot of significance tonight, more-so than some of the fan base seems to realize.  It's easy for some to discount the Wolfpack after their big loss to North Carolina or the fact they haven't won in Cameron Indoor Stadium since 1983.

But a closer look shows that statistically, these teams are fairly even on paper and while Duke has played the tougher schedule, the Wolfpack have had a challenging slate as well.  And did I mention that the Wolfpack are a just a single game out in the standings?  This is flat out a must win for Duke to make a run at the conference title and their rival, North Carolina won last night and Duke must win to tie them and possibly Florida State if they win tonight as well.

Since losing to the then top rated team in the nation, Syracuse, the Wolfpack have gone 12-3 and they come into this game on a three game winning streak, all ACC wins.  The only bad loss for the W olfpack was against Georgia Tech and their other losses were to Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Stanford, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. That shows marked improvement this season under new head coach Mark Gottfried in that the Wolfpack usually lose to a few teams that would embarrass their fan base.  The bottom line here is that he is fielding a competitive upper division ACC team.

The Wolfpack are a very balanced team offensively who are led in scoring by Scott Wood a player that has 16 more three pointers than Duke team leader Andre Dawkins.  But what makes them tick as a unit is PG Lorenzo Brown who is third in the league in steals, second in assists and scores in double figures.  This is a big backcourt and we all remember how Duke struggled with Temple and their big guards, so this will present a challenge for the Duke backcourt.

Up front, C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell lead the way.  Howell is a beast on the glass and if Leslie gains early confidence he is capable of having a huge game.  Many Duke fans will look back at the Plumlees' great board game against Maryland, where Miles hauled in 22 caroms, but the Wolfpack are clearly tougher up front and are a much better overall team than were the Terps.

Meanwhile, Duke has had to put aside all of the residue from their big win over North Carolina for that is now a game you reflect on come spring and take care of the business at hand.  The Blue Devils have been solid as ever beyond the three point stripe and the Wolfpack have struggled guarding the shot but their coaches will attempt to push the Duke guards off the line.

That means, it is important for Duke to get production from their front court and Mason Plumlee, his brother Miles and Kelly need effective games.  Duke has struggled at home this season and it's time to protect the home court and they'll have to to keep pace in the league.  But all eyes will be on how Duke plays in Cameron after dropping games to Miami and Florida State.

With just three home games left, the hope is that the Crazies will be on their game the same time Coach K's troops are on the court.  The Blue Devils will need to minimize turnovers and not find themselves allowing N.C. State to gain confidence early on.  It will be important for Duke to find ways to continue to get their three point shots off and hit their free throws.  For the record, the Wolfpack are second in the league in free throw percentage.

If this game were earlier in the season it would be the epitome of a trap game but with the regular season title on the line the Blue Devils are aware of the importance.  But this game may put a little scare in the fan base who seems to be overlooking how tough their opponent could be.  Just like Florida State and Miami, the Wolfpack are quite capable of pulling off an upset and they have a lot to play for.  A win for N.C. State would solidify their quest for an NCAA invite and said win would likely get them in for sure.

I'm expecting a tough game this evening, one which could go down to the wire, but I also think Duke will be up for the challenge.  The key for Duke willl be to keep Wood from going off beyond the arc and to get Howell in foul trouble early on and this can be done by aggressively attacking the post.  The line on this game is 10.5 points and I feel that is a bit too much.  The pick here is Duke 77-70 in a very competitive game