Here are Coach K's opening comments from today's season opening press conference. We're working around our audio host difficulties and will bring you more asap.
Part 2 - Q and A 10.00 min. Just hit play!
Here are Coach K's opening comments from today's season opening press conference. We're working around our audio host difficulties and will bring you more asap.
Part 2 - Q and A 10.00 min. Just hit play!
Official practice sessions for the 2009-10 college basketball season will commence in less than 10 days. Excitement throughout the Atlantic Coast Conference is palpable so it is time to preview the ACC. The Duke Blue Devils will win the ACC in 2009-10. Wait, wait a second…before all the Carolina fans howl with indignation, insist the Tar Heels will still rule the roost in the ACC, and label the author as a complete Duke Homer; remember that Duke won the ACC last season. That's right, the ACC Champion is the team which wins the tournament, not the team which finishes the regular season with the best record. Carolina fans, worldwide, consistently choose to ignore this small fact.
But, for the record, this article is my prediction on how the teams will be aligned at the end of the regular season. What? Howl the Carolina faithful once again, you are switching between apples and oranges, discussing last year’s ACC Tournament one paragraph, this year’s regular season the next, that's inconsistent, you can't do that. But of course I can, this is the Internet and it is my article, so I make the rules.
Anyway, on to the predictions: when March 11, 2010, arrives: Duke, Carolina, Maryland, and Clemson will have earned a first round bye at the ACC Tournament in Greensboro. What's that sound? More indignant howling, but this time it is coming from Atlanta. Sorry, Yellow Jackets faithful, but Paul Hewitt will find a way to lose despite the formidable talent he has recruited to play in Atlanta. He has consistently accomplished less with more in the past so why should this season be any different?
However, the two teams best positioned to crash the first round bye party in Greensboro are Florida State and Georgia Tech.
This is how the standings will look at the end of the regular season:
1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Maryland
4. Clemson
5. Florida State
6. Georgia Tech
7. Wake Forest
8. Boston College
9. Virginia Tech
10. Virginia
11. Miami
12. N.C. State
Here are some thoughts on the league’s projected top six teams in 2009-10:
Duke – Coach Krzyzewski will be sending a lot of experience onto the court this season and that experience coupled with some young talent will give the Blue Devils the edge. Kyle Singler (70), Jon Scheyer (68), Lance Thomas (62), Nolan Smith (22), and Brian Zoubek (21) are all upper classmen with a combined 243 starts. Experienced teams find a way to win in the college game. The transfer of Elliot Williams due to an illness in the family is unfortunate, but highly rated freshmen Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Andre Dawkins along with returning sophomores Miles Plumlee and Olek Czyz provide Coach K with depth to augment experience. The last time Coach Krzyzewski was able to place this much talent and experience onto the court was when J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams were seniors.
North Carolina – despite losing Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Bobby Frasor from last year’s National Championship team, the Tar Heels will still be a talented and dangerous team. Their frontcourt will be extremely tough with Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Travis Wear. Marcus Ginyard, Dexter Strickland, and Leslie McDonald will hold their own at the shooting guard position. However, Coach Roy Williams is missing the dominant point guard that has fueled his team in recent years. It isn’t a fatal flaw, but it is enough of a flaw to keep the Tar Heels out of the top spot.
Maryland - Greivis Vasquez is a legitimate preseason candidate for ACC Player-of-the-Year and Coach Gary Williams, who consistently accomplishes more with less, has an experienced supporting cast surrounding his star. Seniors Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne are both double digit scorers, while freshmen James Padgett and Jordan Williams will provide the Terps size in the paint. The freshmen will have a learning curve at the beginning of the season, but Coach Williams will have the Terps hitting on all eight cylinders by the time ACC action commences in January. Vasquez and Hayes are arguable the best backcourt duo in the league.
Clemson – Trevor Booker suffered a minor foot injury over the summer and that is troubling, but I still like the Tigers to finish fourth to secure the last bye. Coach Oliver Purnell is building a solid program at Clemson and the best recruiting class in Clemson basketball history will provide Coach Purnell the pieces to execute his high tempo full court press defense. McDonald’s All-American power forward Milton Jennings is the most high profile recruit in the Purnell era, with shooting guard Noel Johnson and forward Devon Booker also being Top 75 recruits. Junior Demontez Stitt is a steady player at the critical point guard position, but he will be challenged for the starting role by sophomore Andre Young. Having two quality point guards on their roster is definitely an advantage for the Tigers.
Florida State – the Seminoles are young and their youth will probably keep them out of the league’s top four, however, Coach Leonard Hamilton does have talent, size and depth on his roster. Some projected starting line-ups indicate the Seminoles could start one junior, three sophomores and a freshman. Sophomores Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton are solid frontcourt players, while freshman guard Michael Snaer is highly rated and expected to break into the starting line-up. Derwin Kitchen, Ryan Reid and Xavier Gibson all contribute to FSU’s depth. The Seminoles will definitely miss Toney Douglas, but they will still be a force to be reckoned with in the ACC.
Georgia Tech - the buzz in Atlanta is all about incoming freshman Derrick Favors. Georgia Tech has great expectations for the McDonald’s All-American and #1 rated player in the nation. Add in 3rd Team All-ACC player, Gani Lawal, ACC All-Freshman Team player Iman Shumpert, and senior Zach Peabody, and the Ramblin’ Wreck are loaded with talent. The question is can Paul Hewitt mesh the young talent into a cohesive team? The outlook isn’t positive based on previous performance in Atlanta. Georgia Tech has underachieved over past five seasons and went 0-8 on the road in the ACC last year. Add in the loss of seniors Lewis Clinch and Alade Aminu and this season looks to be a steep uphill battle for the Yellow Jackets.
Wake Forest, Boston College, and Virginia Tech make up the rest of the ACC’s muddy middle, while Virginia, Miami, and N.C. State are projected to reside in the cellar. It’ll be a long season (actually basketball season always seems to fly by) with many hotly contested games, but in the end this season should play out similar to many past seasons over the history of the Atlantic Coast Conference with Duke and North Carolina fighting it out for the top spot in the standings and another year of bragging rights. Figuratively speaking, my money is on the Blue Devils.
This past weekend Duke held their instructional camp and one of the kids that caught their eye was class of 2012 prospect J.P. Tokoto (6-5, 180, Menomonee Falls, WI). The budding star was accompanied by his parents, trainer and high school basketball coach. BDN Premium caught up with Tokoto and got his thoughts on Duke and Coach K -
Can you describe your game in your own words for fans who have yet to see you play?
Offensively I'm more of a slasher than a jump shooter. I can get by people to shoot or step out for the shot something I've been working on. Defensively, I can get up on ball and defend, deflect the ball for fast breaks and rebound one of the better things I do.
The nations elite basketball programs are all showing interest in you, what is that like for you?
It's an honor to be recruited by them. When I hear my name mentioned with [private] Duke or a Kansas I'm happy. I love the process, it's fun to me.
You haven't played the game of basketball that long. When did you start?
I started playing basketball when I was in the fifth grade and fell in love with it. I continue to practice and get better. I know that this can all go away so you have to keep on working. [talking of hype]
You went to Duke this past weekend, what was that trip like?
The Duke visit was really nice. We didn't really get to tour the campus or anything because we didn't have time. After day one of the camp we took a tour of Cameron and the facilities, saw the coaches room, locker rooms and everything.
What impressed you most about Coach K?
His seriousness and how focused he was. Even though he jokes and everything, he's got a serious side to him and means business.
What was the highlight of the visit?
What impressed me most was the coaching staff, was you know, their hospitality and everything. They really showed they cared watching my games ... Coach K pulled me to the side and critiqued me on stuff which I thought was pretty nice in that he took some time with me. He told me what I was doing right and what I was doing wrong. He talked with us about the Olympic experience and everything.
Could you see yourself playing at a school like Duke?
Oh yeah. I can envision myself playing for them and can imagine myself fitting in.
What schools are coming at you the hardest?
Kansas, Minnesota, Indiana, North Carolina, Duke and Tennessee
What three words best describe you as a basketball player?
Hard working, athletic and explosive
And three words off the court?
Energetic, fun and devoted
__________________________________________________________________________________________
More Tokoto - We have only scratched the surface on Tokoto in that his parents were forthcoming about the trip. It is obvious that there is a healthy respect for Duke. His parents are big on education and he is making good grades. They are hands on in raising JP with old fashioned values. The following comments are from his (step) father -
JP is big on family - "He'll sometimes get the riding lawn mower and get the children on it. They call it the "night ride," where he piles them in a trailer and rides them through the sub division and that's a big deal for them," said Pops.
Family in awe of visits - "After North Carolina and Duke we just kind of looked at each other and smiled. He would smile a smile and mom and dad? We were right there sharing it with him. But after the smiles, we kick it back down a notch. JP was in awe and we try to remind him saying here is your chance. You've been exposed to great universities. Hands down top notch universities. Son, if you think it stops here then you are fooled. We remind him to embrace having this opportunity and that it should be treated with honor."
Family loves the state - North Carolina was a blast, I mean the whole state! My wife has a sister that lives there so we feel like we belong because we are home and get to visit family, it was just fun.
On his visit to UNC - It was a blast. We have much respect, much respect for that program. It's one of the staples of basketball. They treated us very kindly, we got to tour the campus and see what that was about. Coach Williams spent about an hour with us sharing different stories and pictures. I would be remiss if I didn't say it was a unique and fun experience. It was a fun trip, we were tested great by Coach Williams and his staff. We have nothing but good things to say about UNC. And then the very next day we go to the mecca, we go to Duke.
On Duke - We are right there sitting through the camp watching the drills and games and we saw Coach K start off talking to the boys and parents. Just seeing Coach K, he's a ... a [brief loss for words] he's such a calm man, but when you see him on TV he's not so calm and you don't catch too many smiles. Hearing him talk in person and he says such wise things to the boys. I walked away understanding why the United States chose him to coach the basketball team. Despite all of the wins he speaks so eloquently about ... he spoke about standards. He didn't talk about rules, he talked about standards and if they are high enough then the rules are automatically taken care of. That is so true. Hearing him share that wisdom was awesome.
On K's comments - He told the boys, "Don't go to bed thinking how tired you are, think about how great you are going to be tomorrow and envision it. I'm listening and the man had me pumped up. I was ready, I wanted to run out the tunnel. J.P. told us that night, I am going out and I am going to play hard tomorrow and he did. It was a first class event, and I was still talking about it with his high school coach tonight. Even the strength coach walks around with a purpose. I mean that man waled around like I am the strength coach. I looked around and all of his coaches knew their roles and they were at attention.
On education - Education has to play a lead role in his decision. "When you go to Duke you feel that academic prestige and besides that they are a mecca in the basketball world."
On opportunities to be coached - "Coach K was able to get him on the side maybe three times going over his game. So J.P. got his fair share of tips. "
Closing comment - "JP would be ecstatic to talk to Coach K and hopefully, sooner rather than later, that opportunity will present itself and I think that might happen soon now that the camp is over.
Quick facts
- JP's biological Father is former Georgia Tech star, Brian Oliver.
- Wisconsin was the first school to offer him during his freshman year of high school. Marquette soon followed.
- Tokoto almost averaged a double-double as a freshman in high school. His Dad fancies him a team player.
- Kansas and Indiana are the most recent schools to offer. [/private]
Here is anther team and recruiting update from BDN Premium where we touch on some sensitive issues, what happened in Orlando and so much more. Duke expects Kyrie Irving to visit [private] campus in early September, but there are no firm plans for him to visit with Harrison Barnes as some public message boards have claimed. The two have talked but that is normal among the current batch of Duke prospects. In fact, it was interesting to see Austin Rivers just after his game in uniform to talk with Andre Dawkins as he was preparing to play. But there was a third wheel in the conversation, namely Kyrie Irving. While it would be unwise to see this as just a positive spin, it would be just as unwise to play it off as if it meant nothing. In short, we should probably land somewhere in the middle in our thoughts on the gathering.
Duke is down to Kyrie Irving, Harrison Barnes, Brandon Knight and Roscoe Smith in 2010. Duke is concentrating completely on Kyrie as their point guard of the future at this time and they feel there is an excellent chance he will become a Blue Devil. Roscoe Smith still has an offer should he want to come, but there are no major efforts with his recruitment at this time. Duke would be more than happy closing 2010 with Barnes and Irving alone. While Duke still has some backup plans, they are putting an all out effort to finish with Barnes and Irving. Once they get those two, they would turn their attention to Brandon Knight.
Duke has of course offered Quincy Miller and they are looking at a bushel of players in the class of 2011. The staff took a look at Marshall Plumlee in Las Vegas and I feel that he will get an offer in short time. The staff took a look at some new kids as well and I hesitate to mention them for as soon as I do, the other sites will magically have them. Let's test the waters since no other site is aware of who they were watching. On second thought, we'll make that a separate article in the coming days and cut it short to get this update out.
There will be an official announcement concerning Andre Dawkins in the near future. He has one course to be credited with and he has a passing grade, so he will soon be on campus getting acclimated to his environment. We'll have more on this shortly. The staff is very pleased with the recent play of Josh Hairston who was given a few things to work on during a recent campus visit.
Whats up with Austin Rivers? Let me put it like this, Coach K made no bones about it in that he has interest in Rivers. Billy Donovan and the UF staff were likely surprised when Coach K made it a point to be front and center for Rivers games. In fact, when Douglas Dad [see below] approached K, he had gone up the side of another gym to watch Rivers leaving his assistants behind. As it turned out Rivers played in the first half, but they rested him in the second, so he left. I sat near the staff during one of Rivers games and it wasn't hard to see that he glanced over towards Krzyzewski on several occasions. While Rivers maintains he is firm with Florida, he will almost assuredly visit Duke. In fact, I am trying to figure out how to present a brief interview I did with him. Make no mistake, his father wants him to make sure of his choice so some visits will be in place. It doesn't hurt that Doc and K are close from the Olympics and other functions. This is a very sensitive issue, so anything you read at BDN should stay here. Rivers camp has contacted Duke, but this one is far from over. While smart money would be on UF, there is more than a little something going on with Rivers and once he visits others schools, he just may find that the perfect fit is elsewhere. K has had super success with players who have NBA lineage and with their facilities, a basketball first school and his connections, Duke may just make an impression. Stay tuned.
During the AAU Nationals, fans could be seen taking pictures of Krzyzewski from the balcony. There were several instances where Coach K was approached by a throng of admirers, but he had to turn them away due to NCAA rules of contact in that some of them were student athletes. In short, everybody noticed K and wanted a piece of him.
I would like to share this with you for it is a testament to the respect and admiration Coach K has even among his opposition. I happened to be nearby when a gentleman walked up to Coach and had a very appreciative look on his face. He talked with Coach for a few minutes, shaking his hand and thanking him. When he left, I realized it was the father of Florida State guard Toney Douglass. As it turns out, Coach made a call to NBA reps mentioning his character and play. His Dad obviously the unsolicited kind act and you can bet that word of this kind of thing will get around.
All of the men's basketball staff is on vacation or taking a break one way or another. So, it will be relatively quiet for the next couple of weeks. Duke will not announce their Elite Camp roster publicly so please do not ask me questions pertaining to this in any forum. I will tell you what I can as the camp nears and passes. [/private]<
Due to his duties with Team USA in Las Vegas, Coach Mike Krzyzewski was unable to see Brad Beal play in Orlando. Beal, a 2011 target played in the Orlando Showcase event which preceded the AAU Nationals which prevented the Devils head man being there. Despite his absence, Coach Chris Collins and Steve Wojciechowski [Wojo] caught his every move.
In short, Brad Beal knows that Duke is very interested in him as evidenced by Coach K watching him play during the Peach Jam, calling him the following week. Beal and the Devils are in a getting to know one another process that will carry over. The St. Louis guard prospect grew up following JJ Redick and Duke, but many felt he was a huge Florida lean of late.
That may have been the case, but Beal has now conceded that he will no longer make a quick decision as you will hear in the following article. BDN was the first Duke site to interview and cover Beal long before others caught wind of his solid game and we will continue to stay on top of his recruitment.
During the festivities in Orlando, Jason Williams talked to several AAU teams. The former Duke [private] point guard Jason Williams glanced over at Beal who sat with the St. Louis Hawks as he spoke of the tragic accident which set him back. Williams was open in the fact that you had better invest your money wisely, even stating that every single city taxes NBA players. We'll have more on Williams later, but make no mistake that young Brad Beal was attentive.
Beal has the potential to be a first round draft pick with continued development. His long arms, basketball smarts and court savvy has him at the top of the rankings int he class of 2011. BDN told you of Beal early this spring where he caught my eye at the Boo Williams Invitational where I watched him compete in four games.
Not long thereafter, the Duke staff caught wind of his game and they set in motion there design to allow Coach K to see him play. Krzyzewski was pleased with what he saw n Beal and offered the guard just a few days after seeing him play in person. if I haven't beat you over the head with this yet, let me make you aware that Duke never offers kids that Coach K hasn't seen play.
Beal was Team USA's leading scorer earlier this season and that alone opened the door for the Olympic coach to get involved with the young man Donovan was claiming would commit within a week to those close to him.
"I was watching Coach K to see how he would react," said Beal's mom during the Peach Jam. She was thrilled that Coach K had turned out to watch her son. Of course he was telling the media that he would make an early pick and many felt that would happen, but his moms next statement said it all to me.
"Brad grew up liking Duke. I hope he allows them to come in and holds off on his decision," she said, then continued, "I think he will." Despite that statement, it wasn't until Coach K's call that it became evident that Beal would in fact open his recruitment back up.
At this time, Duke is working on a visit date for Beal and the staff will stay in touch as they are allowed with him from this point on.
During the Showcase in Orlando, I caught up to Beal after his team lost their only game in the title match. Beal had a horrible shooting experience, but he didn't let that bother him.
"It's just one game, you have to put it behind you and keep going," stated Beal.
In the prior game, Beal erupted for 31 points, but he was covered by two players in an effort to slow him down during his final game.
When asked of Duke he stated, "It's an honor to be recruited by them and see them following me."
One burning is what did he talk about with Coach K - "He called me right after the Peach Jam and he told me that he was really interested in me and my family better and things like that.
"Yeah, they most definitely are. It's a great school and one of the top schools in the nation so I am definitely interested in them."
When asked what he thought of Coach K, Beal responded, "I was just real surprised that it was him ..." [At that point we had to move the interview in that some coaches [not Duke's] had gotten too close for the NCAA's taste]
I will bring you the rest of the interview later today, but in short Beal had very good things to say about Duke and it is clear that they are very much in the thick of the race with Florida and Kansas. [/private]
When you talk of the Duke beat in journalism, the first name that comes to mind is Al Featherston. BDN is happy to announce that Al is the newest member of our growing list of contributors. In his first effort, "Feather," as he is known to his friends, goes into great detail about Coach K and the perceptions surrounding his acceptance as the head coach of Team USA.
DURHAM, N.C. - The news was leaked earlier, but on July 21 at a press conference in Las Vegas it became official – Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski will remain the head coach of the U.S. National basketball team through the 2012 London Olympic Games.
Amazingly, many Duke fans are unhappy with that news. In a poll on a popular Duke fan site, 150 of 244 participants (61.5 percent) voted that Coach K’s Olympic involvement was a negative for the Blue Devil program. While that may not be a representative sample of the Duke fan base, it certainly reflects the concerns voiced on numerous fan sites and on talk radio that Coach K’s involvement with the National Team somehow detracts from his effectiveness at Duke.
Krzyzewski refuted that view last month at his summer press conference. He vigorously argued that his involvement with the 2008 Olympic team did nothing to hurt his Duke program.
“There was not one negative thing for me, my program, my family,” Krzyzewski said. “That was a great, great experience. The fact that we won made it even better. It helped our program. It helped me. It helped our school. It’s just a good thing. I can’t think of one down thing. When you are listing the positives and the negatives, there is no negative for me.”
Krzyzewski also addressed the issue at his Las Vegas press conference.
“The main thing is that this has made me a better coach,” he said. “It did not fatigue me. And it did not shorten the shelf life of how long I will coach at Duke. In fact, it’s probably lengthened it.”
He repeated that his Olympic experience has so far been a positive, both for him and his program.
“You get better [as a coach],” Krzyzewski said. “You learn more. And the time that you spend is time [because of NCAA rules] where you can’t work with your own kids anyway. And most of the time it's not during recruiting time.”
So whom do you believe? Coach K on one side ... or a bunch of anonymous Internet experts on the other?
Nationally, there’s no real debate. Krzyzewski’s successful association with the United States Olympic team has only increased his already high prestige in the sports world.
When the Duke coach was first named the head the National Team in September of 2005, there were plenty of doubters and critics. A college coach directing a bunch of NBA prima donnas? After all, veteran NBA coaches George Karl and Larry Brown had just failed spectacularly with a collection of NBA superstars in the 2002 World Championships and the 2004 Olympic games. Quite a few so-called experts questioned the wisdom of appointing Krzyzewski to direct the massive egos he would need to take USA Basketball back to the top of the world rankings.
But after Coach K’s three-year effort to recapture the Olympic Gold Medal ended with a impressive triumph in Beijing last summer, the doubters were silenced ... or in most cases, converted. Superstars such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Josh Howard all submerged their individual egos for the team goal. They honored Coach K for his leadership in the moments after the title game when every member of the team hung his gold medal around the coaches’ neck.
“You know what, I got paid off every day that I was working with our national team,” Krzyzewski said. “It was one of those moments. You’re not thinking about past, future ... it was one of those special moments.”
Now it looks like Coach K will bid for another special moment. If he’s named the 2012 Olympic coach, as expected, there will be few skeptics this time. He’s proved that he can manage a team of pro all-stars in pursuit of the ultimate goal. He has a chance to become just the second man to guide the U.S. men’s basketball team to two gold medals. Oklahoma State legend Hank Iba led the United States to gold medals in the 1964 Tokyo Olympic Games and the 1968 Mexico City Games.
Of course, Iba’s legacy was somewhat tarnished when he missed a third gold medal bid when the United States lost a controversial gold medal game to the Soviet Union in Munich in 1972.
The outcome Team USA’s bid to repeat in the 2012 London Games will have an impact on Krzyzewski’s legacy, another gold medal effort building his resume as one of the greatest coaches of all times.
***
But is he building his legacy at the expense of his Duke program?
That’s the question that haunts too many Blue Devil fans. The fear stems from the perceived “slump” that Duke had suffered in the last three seasons when Coach K was spending his summers with the National Team.
Before we delve into this issue, let’s define our parameters. Coach K was first named to coach the National Team in the fall of 2005. He spent more than a month of the summer of 2006 at the World Championships in Japan. He spent a little less than a month of the summer of 2007 guiding the National Team in the Tournament of Americas (an Olympic qualifying event) in Las Vegas. In 2008, he spent a week in June and almost six weeks in late July and August with the National Team preparing for -- and winning -- the Olympic Gold medal in Beijing. There have been a few other scattered meetings and affairs, but no more than his duties with the V Foundation or the National Association of Basketball Writers require.
All that means that any impact on the program would have to have occurred after the 2006 season. That was the season when Duke finished 32-4, No. 1 in the final AP poll and won the ACC championship (both regular season and tournament).
On the surface, there does appear to have been some drop-off in the three seasons since. Duke, which won 31-27-32 games in the three seasons before K’s first international summer, has won 22-28-30 games in the three seasons following his National Team involvement.
That’s 90-16 in the three seasons between 2004-06; 80-24 between 2007-09. Duke won two ACC titles and went 8-3 in NCAA between 2004-06. Duke has won one ACC title and has gone just 3-3 in NCAA play since.
But is that decline due to Krzyzewski’s involvement in the Olympics?
One simple observation indicates that it’s not: If K’s summer work was hurting the program, the damage should have gotten progressively worse. Instead, the team got progressively BETTER the longer K coached the Olympians.
The low point in the program (at least since 1996) occurred in 2007, when Duke finished 22-11, unranked in the final poll and was eliminated in the first round of both the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
A year later, Duke improved to 28-6. The ’08 Blue Devils finished No. 9 in the final AP poll and won one game in both the ACC and NCAA Tournaments.
And last season, Duke finished 30-7 and No. 6 in the final AP poll. The Blue Devils won three games in Atlanta in March to claim their 17th ACC championship and won twice in the NCAA Tournament to advance to the Sweet 16 for the 10th time in 12 years (more than any other program over than span).
If K’s focus on the National Team was such a problem, why did Duke keep getting better in those seasons? Is there another reasonable explanation for the dropoff in 2007 – which in itself largely accounts for the program’s recent “slump”?
[Note: Just to be clear, Duke’s average of 29.0 wins in 2008 and 2009 is very close to the 29.4 win average in the five years previous to 2007].
There are good reasons that the 2006-07 Duke team struggled – reasons that have nothing to do with the August weeks that Coach K spent in Japan that summer chasing the World Championship.
It starts with the graduation of four seniors off the successful 2006 team. That includes national player of the year J.J. Redick, consensus first-team All-American Shelden Williams, solid two-year starter Sean Dockery and valuable reserve Lee Melchionni.
Obviously, the next year’s team was going to take a hit. Making matters worse, sophomore point guard Greg Paulus – one of the team’s two returning starters – broke his foot on the second day of practice and was hobbled all season (finally undergoing a second bout of corrective surgery after the season). His injury was very reminiscent of one suffered in preseason 1994-95 by sophomore guard Chris Collins – an injury that played a large role in the collapse of that Duke team.
The 2006-07 Blue Devils didn’t collapse, but they did struggle to “just” 22 wins and an 8-8 ACC finish. They lost three ACC games in overtime and another by a single point.
There were other injuries and illnesses (talented freshman Gerald Henderson was never 100 percent all season) – problems that stronger teams might have overcome, but were too much for the young, razor-thin Blue Devils to handle in 2006-07.
The biggest problem for Coach K’s team that year was its lack of experience and leadership. There was not a single senior on the 2006-07 roster ... and just one junior. Every other player in the rotation was a freshman or a sophomore.
The real reason for Duke’s struggles in 2006-07 were a series of recruiting misses and player losses that occurred BEFORE Krzyzewski was named Olympic coach. Just examine the classes that made up the 2006-07 team:
-- In 2003 (what should have been the ’07 senior class), Coach K landed commitments from Minnesota big man Kris Humphries and Nigerian-born, London-raised swing man Luol Deng.
Humphries never made it to campus, cut loose by Krzyzewski after (reportedly) the Duke coach and the prospect’s father disagreed about Humphries’ role on the team. No matter in the long run – Humphries was clearly a one-and-done player, who wouldn’t have been around in 2006-07 even if he had enrolled.
Deng, on the other hand, proved to be a spectacular freshman in 2004. He was the regional MVP as Duke reached the Final Four. His jump to the NBA that spring came as a surprise and a disappointment to the Duke staff, which had hoped to retain his services for at least one more season.
In the end, Krzyzewski got one very good season from Deng out of the class of 2003, but his rapid departure left a void that would haunt the Blue Devils for the next three seasons.
-- In 2004 (what should have been the ’07 junior class), Coach signed two top prospects – Illinois guard Shaun Livingston was rated the No. 2 prospect in the class (behind NBA-bound Dwight Howard) and California guard DeMarcus Nelson ranked No. 18. Coach K also brought in Connecticut swingman David McClure, ranked No. 71 nationally by RSCI (which averages the rankings of the major recruiting services).
Livingston became the first (and still only) Duke recruit to jump straight to the NBA. McClure arrived on campus with two crippled knees. He was able to play just 184 minutes as a freshman, then had to sit out the 2006 season after undergoing major reconstructive surgery. He returned in 2007 and proved to be a significant contributor as a defensive stopper in his final three seasons.
Nelson’s career was also hampered by injuries. He suffered major setbacks as a freshman and sophomore, finally emerging as an outstanding player in his final two years (first-team All-ACC in 2008).
-- After two small recruiting classes – both decimated by injuries and early NBA departures – Coach K brought in a big class in 2005. It included Indiana big man Josh McRoberts, New York point guard Greg Paulus, English native center Eric Boateng; California forward Jamal Boykin and Lithuanian guard Martynas Pocius.
On paper it was a great class – No. 2 in the nation, according to the RSCI. McRoberts was the consensus No. 1 player in the class, ranking ahead of No. 2 Monta Ellis (straight to the NBA), No. 3 Martell Webster (straight to the NBA) and No. 4 Tyler Hansbrough (UNC). Paulus was the No. 13 prospect (and No. 2 college-bound point guard, behind only Kansas recruit Mario Chambers), Boateng ranked No. 39, Pocius was No. 53 and Boykin, California’s Mr. Basketball, was No. 60.
In hindsight, we can see that the failure of this class to meet (or even approach) expectations had a lot to do with Duke’s struggles in 2006-07. McRoberts became a good player – a starter in 2006 and a second-team All-ACC pick in 2007, but he left after his sophomore season and never fulfilled his potential of the nation’s top-rated prospect. Paulus also became a very solid college player – he led the ACC in assists as a freshman starter and was a third-team All-ACC performer as a junior. But he too failed to match the high expectations that he had brought with him.
Pocius never found a role at Duke and became a spot player. That’s still better than Boateng and Boykin, who transferred out before ever being significant players.
That’s three classes in a row that flamed out to some degree. While it’s easy to blame Krzyzewski for under-recruiting in 2003 and 2004, remember that he had a fairly full roster at that time and he knew that bringing in too many players – especially less highly rated guys who would have sat for 2-3 years – leads to unhappiness and transfers. And while it’s also possible to blame Coach K for overrating the talent of his 2005 recruits, it’s only fair to note that almost everybody else in the recruiting universe overrated them too.
But wherever the blame lies, the fact is that the slump in 2006-07 had nothing to do with Coach K’s Olympic involvement. It was shaped by recruiting problems that cropped up long before Krzyzewski was named to head the National Team.
It’s interesting to note that the 2006 recruiting class – the first three players signed two months after Coach K was first named Olympic coach, while the fourth signed the next spring – turned out to be Duke’s most successful recruiting class since the Super Six of 2002 (Redick, Williams and company).
Those four players were freshmen on the 2006-07 team and have been the foundation of Duke’s revival the last two seasons. Gerald Henderson overcame a tough freshman season to become a first-team All-ACC selection and an NBA lottery pick after his junior year. Jon Scheyer, the 2009 ACC Tournament MVP, has been even more consistent over his first three seasons and will be one of the top players in the conference heading into next season. Lance Thomas is a two-year starter and a solid contributor, while guard Brian Zoubek has been a useful reserve.
Although that quartet is technically Coach K’s first post-Olympic class, in reality, Henderson, Scheyer and Zoubek all committed before the Duke coach was tied down with any National Team duties. Even Thomas committed and signed before Krzyzewski left Durham to pursue the World Championship in the summer of 2006.
In view of the fact that many of the fans that are unhappy with Coach K’s Olympic involvement believe that his summer commitment to the National Team detracts from his recruiting efforts for Duke, it’s worth examining how well he has actually recruited since his first international summer (2006).
-- It starts with 2007, when Coach K signed three players – Oregon forward Kyle Singler, Oak Hill (Va.) guard Nolan Smith and California sharpshooter Taylor King.
On paper, the class was ranked No. 3 in the nation. All three players were McDonald’s All-Americans, ranking No. 5 (Singler), No. 19 (Smith) and No. 24 (King) in the RSCI. As it turned out, Singler has become a collegiate star, who will be a contender for ACC and national player of the year honors in his junior season. Smith has had his ups and downs, but he finished last year strong and figures to be a significant player for the Blue Devils in his junior season..
The transfer of King after one season demonstrates the problem with bringing in top-rated prospects who are sometimes unwilling to play a limited role early in their career.
-- In 2008, Coach K signed three more players: Memphis guard Elliot Williams, Polish forward Olek Czyz and late addition Miles Plumlee, an Indiana product who played prep basketball in North Carolina.
That class was rated No. 11 in the nation, although the departure of Williams (No. 15 in the RSCI) after one season will hurt the long-term impact of the class. Plumlee (No. 81) certainly has potential, while Czyz (No. 66) has yet to find a role.
-- In 2009, Coach K signed just two players, but both were top prospects: Raleigh prep school product Ryan Kelly (No. 14) and Miles’ younger brother, Mason Plumlee (No. 18).
The class ranks No. 8 nationally, not counting Liberty transfer Seth Curry. The younger brother of Davidson All-American Stephen Curry was the nation’s leading freshman scorer last year.
And that ranking doesn’t include guard Andre Dawkins, who was projected as a 2010 recruit when he committed last year, but has changed his plans and may enroll this fall. Dawkins is a consensus Top 25 prospect from the 2010 class.
That’s six McDonald’s All-Americans and a total of eight top 100 rated prospects in the three years when Coach K has been engaged in Olympic duties during the summer. His three classes have ranked No. 3, No. 11 and No. 8 in the nation ... not bad. And Dawkins is just the tip of the 2010 iceberg – forward Josh Hairston and guard Tyler Thornton are already committed and Duke appears to be in great shape for swing man Harrison Barnes, the No. 1 player in the class and Kyrie Irving, one of the nations top guards.
So why do so many anguished fans believe that Coach K’s recruiting has slipped during his Olympic tenure?
The answer is that they tend to focus more on his recruiting misses in the last three years than his successes. That’s partly the result of the recent explosion of Internet wall-to-wall coverage of the recruiting scene – and the selective memory to forget that Coach K (like all coaches) has always endured his share of recruiting misses.
Still, there are those who act like the failure to land such players as Patrick Patterson, Greg Monroe, Kenny Boynton and John Wall is some kind of aberration, which must be due to Coach K’s Olympic commitment.
So let’s examine those four celebrated losses in detail and see what role the Olympics played.
-- Yes, it’s unfortunate that Duke failed to land recruiting target Patrick Patterson in the spring of 2007. The tall, powerful forward from West Virginia would have looked great in Duke Blue. It’s reasonable to speculate that if he had signed with the Blue Devils and started up front in 2008 and 2009, Coach K would have added another Final Four team and maybe another national championship to his resume.
But it’s not reasonable to suggest that K’s Olympic involvement had anything to do with losing Patterson to Kentucky. Duke only got into the hunt for Patterson late in the fall of 2006, after Coach K’s return from the World Championships in Japan. Patterson made his decision in late March of 2007, long before K joined the National Team in August.
The Olympics had absolutely no impact on Coach K’s pursuit of Patterson. In truth, Patterson was always a Kentucky lean who only became a strong possibility for Duke after Kentucky fired Tubby Smith.
-- A year later, Duke targeted Louisiana big man Greg Monroe. Unlike Patterson, he was an early target for the Blue Devils and seemed to be a Duke-type guy – intelligent, thoughtful and a versatile player ... a big man with superb passing skills. Duke was in the hunt before and after Coach K’s August trip to Las Vegas for the Tournament of the Americas, but on Oct. 13, 2007, before making an official visit to Duke, Monroe committed to the Hoyas. He also cancelled scheduled trips to Texas and UConn.
Now, was K’s absence in August so negative that there was nothing the Duke staff could do to repair the damage in the six weeks between their return and Monroe’s commitment? K and/or his staff were there for the July AAU events when prospects are showcased. K’s Olympic duties in 2007 were during a recruiting dead period, when it was illegal to even watch prospects first-hand.
Isn’t it most likely that Monroe went to Georgetown for the reason that he said he did, that he formed a bond with Hoyas coach John Thompson III? Duke has won numerous recruiting battles over the years because the prospect forms a similar bond with Coach K. Danny Ferry, who grew up a UNC fan, came to Duke because he was most comfortable with Coach K. Johnny Dawkins, Grant Hill and Shane Battier all cited their immediate connection to Coach K as primary reasons for picking Duke.
Grant Hill, like Monroe, made a surprise early commitment before taking most of his scheduled official visits. His instant chemistry with Krzyzewski made him sure of his choice.
Is it so strange that Duke would lose a prospect for the same chemistry with another coach?
-- Boynton is a combo guard from Florida that Coach K sometimes compared to ex-Duke star Jason Williams. He is a good student and always had the Blue Devils among his recruiting leaders.
But Boynton is a Florida kid who became the No. 1 target of Florida’s Billy Donovan, an accomplished recruiter in his own right. Indeed, Donovan beat Krzyzewski straight up in 2001 for Missouri big man David Lee – no Olympics involved. When Boynton committed to Florida, he cited the Gators’ obvious interest as his primary reason for picking the Gators over Duke. He said that he was impressed that either Donovan or one of his assistants were in the stands for every one of his summer league games.
On the surface, that seems to be possible evidence that Olympic duties cost Krzyzewski. But was that really the case?
Boynton told the Gainesville (Fla.) Sun that he was talking about his July AAU games. Krzyzewski and his staff were involved in an Olympic camp in late June, but then broke for recruiting duties in July. The Olympic team re-assembled on July 20th, just as the AAU circuit was ending.
Essentially, Krzyzewski missed 12 days of the legal evaluation period (which ended July 31st). At that point, nobody needed to evaluate a player of Boynton’s stature, but a coach could demonstrate interest by being in the stands during his game.
That’s what Donovan did with Boynton. And while Krzyzewski and his staff didn’t match that in late July, they apparently weren’t as omnipresent in early and middle July either.
In the end, Boynton elected to play at his home-state school. Like Monroe, he committed before even making his official visit to Duke. He said at the time of the signing that he thought Florida offered him the best chance to make the Final Four (which suggests he was seriously deluded).
If there’s a recruit Duke lost due to the Olympics – and the evidence in this case is very, very slim – then it’s Boynton. But the truth is that Coach K recruited Kenny Boynton with the same fervor that he pursued Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and Elliot Williams. The Olympics didn’t impact his recruiting approach to the Florida guard.
-- John Wall became a major Duke target after Boynton dropped off the radar by picking Florida. If Duke had landed Boynton, the staff never would have pursued Raleigh Word of God star.
There are a lot of reasons why Wall picked Kentucky over Duke, but it’s hard to see why the Olympic involvement is one of them. Coach K only focused his efforts on Wall in the fall of 2008, after his return from Beijing. There was no Olympic distraction during Duke’s pursuit of Wall in the winter and spring of 2009. He made his college choice in early May, before the rumors surfaced that Coach K might re-up as Olympic coach.
Now, while the four recruiting targets cited above represent the most hotly debated recruiting “misses” during Coach K’s recruiting involvement, there were of course several others. Duke pursued big man Eric Murphy early, but he opted for Florida. The Blue Devils were interested in power forward Greg Echenique, a Venezuelan who was originally planned to graduate from high school in 2009, but ran into eligibility issues and had to come out after the 2008 season. It’s unlikely that Duke could have recruited him under those circumstances. He ended up playing for Rutgers last season.
Duke ended up with Kelly and Plumlee instead, who were each rated higher than Murphy (a similar style inside/outside big man) and Echenique (more of a low-post power player).
But that’s the way recruiting all ways goes – and has always gone, long before K signed on to coach the Olympic team.
Go back to Krzyzewski’s first year at Duke, when his initial recruiting effort resulted in a strong of second-place finishes for guys like Chris Mullins, Bill Wennington, Uwe Blab and Jimmy Miller. A year later, his first great recruiting class was strengthened when celebrated prep All-American Curtis Hunter picked UNC over Duke, opening up a spot for unknown David Henderson (who turned into a much better college player than Hunter).
In the late 1980s, Krzyzewski struggled to find a point guard to replace Tommy Amaker. In 1987, he lost Florida prep star Chris Corchiani to N.C. State. A year later, he lost point guard Derrick Martin to UCLA. Everybody was getting frustrated by his painful misses, but the bad recruiting fortune in 1987 and 1988 opened the door for Krzyzewski to land Bobby Hurley in 1989.
In the next decade, Duke lost Eric Montross and Antwan Jamison to UNC, Adonal Foyle to Colgate, Bryant Stith to Virginia, Andrae Patterson to Indiana, Chris Webber to Michigan and Jerry Gee and Richard Keane to Illinois. All were regarded as key targets. In fact, in the fall of 1995 – in the wake of the team’s collapse the previous season – Coach K hosted three “must-get” targets on the same weekend. But he lost Shaheen Holloway to Seton Hall, Jason Collier to Indiana and Willie Dersch to Virginia.
A year after going 0-for-3 on his top targets, he had Duke back in the top 10.
After the program revived, he still lost Jared Jeffries to Indiana, Lee to Florida, Andrew Gooden and Alexander Kaun to Kansas and Jon Brockman to Washington.
None of that had anything to do with the Olympics or K slowing down or changes in his staff or any other so-called explanation for Duke’s recent recruiting “decline.”
It’s just the way recruiting goes – even the top programs miss on as many top targets as they hit.
Just look eight miles down the road, where UNC’s Roy Williams has enjoyed as much recruiting success as anybody over the last few years. But as good as his 2006 class was (Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and company), he lost Gerald Henderson to Duke. He flamed out in 2007, losing Kevin Love to UCLA and ending up with a class that consisted of Will Graves. The next spring, he flirted with disaster as he lost a number of top big man prospects, including Delvon Roe (Michigan State) and Samardi Samuels (Louisville), before he finally salvaged the class with Ed Davis. And while he has another top-rated class coming in this season, it doesn’t include Ryan Kelly, a prospect he lost to K.
Williams has no Olympic duties to distract him. What his excuse for missing so many top prospects?
Now, some Krzyzewski critics are going to suggest that he recruits too narrowly for this modern one-and-done era. And, they argue, that can leave his team shorthanded at times. That might be a valid point to debate (the counter-argument is that spreading himself too thinly leads to even more misses; plus the evidence that bringing in less-talented players to insure against defections or recruiting misses leads to transfers).
Either way, it’s a separate argument that has nothing to do with the Olympic debate.
***
While it’s hard to find evidence that K’s Olympic commitment has hurt Duke’s recruiting, there’s another issue of some concern – burnout.
Krzyzewski turned 62 years old midway through the 2009 season. He’s had major back and hip problems in the last two decades. The former became so severe that he was forced to take a leave of absence midway through the 1994-95 season.
That problem came almost three years after the most intense period in Krzyzewski’s career. Coach K has admitted that he got a little frazzled with job demands during the back-to-back national championship seasons of 1991-92. He includes his involvement with the 1992 U.S. Olympic Team – he was an assistant coach for the original “Dream Team” – as contributing to his overload during that period.
But his departure in January of 1995 was precipitated by physical problems, not job demands. He underwent major back surgery in late October of 1994, just after the start of preseason practice. Told to take six weeks off for rehab, Krzyzewski was back at practice 10 days after the operation. The unrelenting back pain he suffered through November and December led to his physical breakdown just after New Year’s.
Krzyzewski was just short of his 48th birthday when he took his leave of absence in 1995. He’s 14 years older today, although at the moment he appears to be healthy. He restructured his staff and the basketball office after his 1995 crisis to take some of the load off his shoulders and to spread it more among his assistants.
Obviously, adding another important job – coaching the National Team – is going to increase demands on Krzyzewski, no matter how much he delegates.
Do those demands create a dangerous situation?
All we have to go by is Krzyzewski’s reaction to his first stint as Olympic coach. After completing his three-year commitment in August of 2008, he returned from Beijing with a new energy and enthusiasm that was evident to all who knew him or followed his program closely (including this writer).
“It has been incredibly energizing for him,” former player and ESPN commentator Jay Bilas told the Raleigh News & Observer.
Bilas added another observation: “He has also learned more from the coaches on his (USA) staff and seen a different way of doing things. It has expanded his basketball horizons.”
Indeed, much was made in 2008 of the refinements in his fastbreak offense that Coach K learned from Olympic assistant coach Mike D’Antoni. Last year, Krzyzewski talked about the zone defense that he had learned from Syracuse coach (and Olympic assistant) Jim Boeheim.
“I think what I’ve learned from coaching some of the best players in the world really translates well to what we are doing at Duke,” Krzyzewski told Michael Tomko of goduke.com. “When we can show tapes or tell stories of what guys do to be part of a team, to do dirty work, the extra conditioning and to say we have worked with these guys, that’s what they do. So when we ask you guys to do these things it is something we have already seen work at the highest level. I think it helps us immensely.”
Tactical innovations aside, there’s no telling what impact K’s increased visibility will actually have on his recruiting efforts. Remember the cries of outrage in 2006 when his American Express commercial was all over the airwaves, creating (in the words of jealous rivals) “an unfair recruiting advantage”?
So what kind of advantage will it be to have upcoming recruits hear Kobe Bryant say that he regrets not being able to play for Coach K in college or to read how LeBron James credits Krzyzewski for elevating his game? How much impact will it have when Harrison Barnes or Brad Beal see Krzyzewski coaching the best NBA players in the World Championships next summer or in the London Olympics in 2012?
“I think being our National coach and being on a global stage first of all just helps Duke in saying that our Duke coach is doing that,” Krzyzewski told Tomko. “It’s a visible stage; it’s not a hidden stage.”
There clearly is a positive aspect of Krzyzewski’s Olympic involvement for the Duke program. And despite the fears of so many Blue Devil fans, the positive aspects almost certainly outweigh any potential negatives.
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