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Duke Football

Blue Devils will try to end a streak against Wake Forest Saturday

Wake Forest is riding an 11-game winning streak in the series with Duke.

Duke (3-3, 1-1 ACC) will host in-state ACC rival Wake Forest (4-2, 3-1 ACC) on Saturday afternoon in Wallace Wade Stadium. The two programs are familiar foes, having met 91 times, including each of the last 44 seasons. The Blue Devils hold the all-time lead in the series, but the Demon Deacons have dominated their Tobacco Road rivals over the past decade. Duke’s last victory over Wake Forest came in 1999, and though the two teams have produced several competitive and memorable matchups since (5 games decided by less than a touchdown), the Demon Deacons have won 11 straight in the series. The Blue Devils will try to end that streak when the two teams kickoff at 12:30 PM ET on the ACC Network.

After a disappointing season in 2010, the Demon Deacons have been one of the ACC’s biggest surprises in 2011, with conference wins over NC State, Boston College, and Florida State. Wake Forest is led by a disciplined offense, which leads the ACC in red zone efficiency (89.7% scoring) and turnovers (5 total turnovers). The Demon Deacons feature a balanced attack led by QB Tanner Price (267 yards per game, 2nd in the ACC), WR Chris Givens (123 yards per game, 1st in the ACC) and RB Josh Harris (82 yards per game, 6th in the ACC). The defense has been opportunistic, forcing 9 turnovers on the season, but ranks last in the ACC with just 6 sacks.

Both Duke and Wake Forest were riding winning streaks before a conference loss last week, and both teams will look to get back on track this Saturday with a crucial ACC win.

Tanner Price led the Demon Deacons to a shootout victory over Duke last season- Blogger So Dear Photo

KEYS FOR DUKE

1. Limit Explosives: the Blue Devils got burned repeatedly last week against the Seminoles, and that helped put the game away early. The combination of Price and Givens has proven to be explosive this season for the Demon Deacons, as evidenced by a 79-yard TD catch last week against Virginia Tech and a season average of 18.5 yards per catch. Expect Ross Cockrell to have a busy day keeping tabs on Givens, and the entire Blue Devil secondary will have to help to keep him contained. Josh Harris is the key for the Wake Forest running game, but has been limited in practice this week. Expect senior Brandon Pendergrass to help shoulder the load, and look for Duke’s Kelby Brown and Matt Daniels to have a big role in stopping the Deacs on the ground.

2. Take care of the football: Duke has improved on their turnover ratio from a season ago, but continue to give the ball away. QB Sean Renfree threw a costly tipped pass interception early in the game against FSU last week, and that helped to set the tone of the game. Wake Forest has been the best in the ACC at taking care of the football, and the Blue Devils cannot afford to give the Demon Deacons extra possessions on Saturday.

3. Find an unlikely hero: we’re at the halfway point of the season, and every team is bound to have injuries. They have certainly piled up for the Blue Devils, but Duke has showcased some of their improved depth over the past few weeks. Heading into Saturday, there are three key positions of concern for the Blue Devils, where young players will be needed to step up. Duke’s secondary is slowly healing, but several players are hurting, including a few not listed on the official injury report. Lee Butler, Johnny Williams, and August Campbell all appear on this week’s injury report, which means that players like Zach Greene and Jordon Byas will have to take on a larger role again this week against an explosive Wake Forest passing game. The Blue Devils have significant injuries to two potential offensive line starters in David Harding and Brian Moore. Both players may be able to play, but will be far from 100%, which means that Conor Irwin may again have to take some snaps at center. Lastly, senior WR Donovan Varner continues to nurse a hamstring injury that will limit him on Saturday, meaning more snaps for freshmen Jamison Crowder and Blair Holliday. A combination of these young players will have to make an impact for the Blue Devils to get the W on Saturday.

GAME ANALYSIS

Turnovers

Wake Forest +4, Duke -2

Duke has made significant improvements in limiting turnovers this season, but continue to struggle in forcing turnovers. The Blue Devils rank 3rd in the ACC with just 8 turnovers on the season, but are last in the conference with just 6 takeaways of their own. Similarly, the Demon Deacons are 1st in the ACC with just 5 turnovers, but 8th in takeaways with 9.

Sacks

Duke 10, Wake Forest 6

Two of the ACC’s worst pass rushes will face off on Saturday, with the Blue Devils having slightly more success thus far. The Duke offensive line has also done a slightly better job protecting their QB, having given up 13 sacks on the year versus 16 allowed by Wake Forest.

3rd Down

Duke 40%, Wake Forest 37%

Again, both teams fall in the bottom half of the conference in 3rd down efficiency. The Wake Forest defense has held opponents to just 34% on 3rd downs, which means that the Blue Devil offense will have to execute well to move the chains on Saturday.

Explosives

With two of the top WRs in the country squaring off on Saturday, the team that does the better job defensively will win this game. These two defenses will be challenged to keep their opponents’ offense grounded with stars like Conner Vernon and Chris Givens. In their losses, the Blue Devils have been burned by explosive plays, especially through the air. If Price is able to find Givens in open space, it will be a long afternoon for the Blue Devils.

Rushing TDs

Duke 12, Wake Forest 8

This statistic is very misleading. The Blue Devils have the worst red zone offense in the ACC, scoring on just 73.9% of trips to the red zone. When Duke does score, it’s usually on the ground, with 12 rushing TDs to just 2 passing TDs in the red zone. Wake Forest is tops in the ACC, scoring on nearly 90% of their trips to the red zone, and feature a balanced red zone offense with 8 rushing TDs and 6 passing TDs.

Field Goals

Wake Forest 92%, Duke 40%

While much of Dukes struggles in the kicking game came early in the season, the Blue Devils still have improvements to make. Wake Forest’s Jimmy Newman is 1st in the ACC with an average of 2 made FGs per game.

Penalties

Duke 36.2 yards per game, Wake Forest 49.7 yards per game

Surprisingly the Demon Deacons rank next to last in the ACC in penalty yards per game. The Blue Devils continue to be one of the more disciplined teams in the conference. Duke will have to continue to play good fundamental football on Saturday, as their margin for error against a confident and talented Wake Forest team is slim.

PREDICTION

With 11 straight wins in the series, it’d be an understatement to say the Demon Deacons have the Blue Devils’ number. Both teams enter the game bumped and bruised and fresh off an ACC loss. Wake Forest has been the more consistent team and have done a good job taking care of the football. With a depleted offensive line, expect a light workload for Duke’s running backs and quick throws from Sean Renfree. A hamstring injury to Donovan Varner will provide an opportunity for young Jamison Crowder and Blair Holliday to step up. The Blue Devil defense will have their hands full trying to stop Wake Forest’s combination of Tanner Price, Chris Givens, and Josh Harris. The team that takes care of the football will emerge the victor.

Wake Forest 34, Duke 31

Duke Football

BDN Previews Duke’s ACC Home Opener vs. Florida State

Florida State will travel to Durham to take on the Blue Devils for the first time since 2007 on Saturday.

The Duke Blue Devils (3-2, 1-0 ACC) will host the preseason ACC favorite Florida State Seminoles (2-3, 0-2 ACC) on Saturday in Wallace Wade Stadium. The two teams enter the game on opposing streaks, with the Blue Devils having won 3 games in a row and the Seminoles having dropped 3 in a row. Duke and FSU last met in 2007 in Tallahassee, with the Seminoles gaining a 25-6 victory. FSU is 16-0 all-time against the Blue Devils, having won every contest since the teams first played in 1992.

Both teams feature high-flying offenses, with the ACC’s top two passing units facing off in Wallace Wade on Saturday afternoon at 3PM on the ACC Network. The two squads also rank at the bottom of the conference in pass defense, which means that fans should be ready for a probable shootout.

KEYS FOR DUKE

1. Keep the Seminoles grounded

It’s easier said than done. With E.J. Manuel’s mobility limited by injury and the Seminoles struggling to run the ball, FSU has racked up an average of 325 yards per game through the air. Freshman Rashad Greene is the Seminoles’ top target, averaging 91 yards and over 5 catches per game. He’s already found the end zone 6 times through the first 5 games. While FSU has been effective through the air, they have struggled on the ground. Florida State ranks last in the ACC with just 85 yards per game rushing and a 3.2 yards per carry average. The Blue Devils will have a big challenge in front of them as they look to continue the Seminoles’ struggles on the ground while limiting big plays through the air. With injuries to Matt Daniels, Johnny Williams, August Campbell, and Lee Butler, the Blue Devils’ secondary will have to matchup with an explosive FSU receiving corps. Can young players like Zach Greene, Jordon Byas, and Walt Canty continue to step up in their teammates‘ absence?

2. Keep Sean Renfree upright

We mentioned this as a key last week against an athletic FIU pass rush. The Blue Devils’ offensive line will face another stiff challenge this week as the Seminoles feature an NFL-caliber pass rush led by 6’3” 265 pound junior DE Brandon Jenkins and 6’4” 273 pound sophomore DE Bjoern Werner. If Duke is to have any success on offense, they will have to protect their quarterback, who has thrown for over 300 yards in 2 of the past 3 games. Expect the Blue Devils to utilize various blocking schemes and quick throws to limit the FSU pass rush. If FSU is able to put Renfree on the ground, it may be a long day for the Duke offense.

3.       Keep the momentum

It’s not often that Duke has had the better record and the momentum heading into a matchup with a national power like Florida State, but that’s the case this year. While the Seminoles are still favored by nearly two touchdowns, the Blue Devils are the team with a 3 game winning streak and an unbeaten record in ACC play, while the Seminoles are searching for answers after an 0-2 conference start. The Seminoles will likely have some success moving the football, but the Blue Devils’ offense has been playing well enough to keep up. Duke must maintain their aggressive style of play and the confident determination they displayed in their 4th quarter comeback against FIU. If Renfree and his receivers continue their rhythm and the Duke defense remains opportunistic, the Blue Devils are capable of pulling off a big upset in Wallace Wade Stadium.

GAME ANALYSIS

Turnovers

Duke -2, FSU -7

What a difference a year makes. The Blue Devils have significantly cut down on their turnovers from a year ago and find themselves playing better football as a result. The Duke defense is still struggling to turn opponents over, but have come up with the football in crunch time, including the forced fumble late against FIU. The Seminoles have thrown 10 interceptions through 5 games, and the Blue Devil secondary should be looking to make a few big plays in this one.

Sacks

FSU 14, Duke 7

The Duke offensive line will have its hands full as they try to protect Sean Renfree against yet another tough pass rush. Jenkins and Werner have totaled 6 sacks between them. With Brian Moore still sidelined and Dave Harding bruised, Duke will need another strong effort from redshirt-freshmen Laken Tomlinson and Takoby Cofield.

3rd Down

FSU 47%, Duke 43%

Both teams have been efficient on 3rd down, and if that trend continues, it should make for a high-scoring contest. The Blue Devils have been able to control the clock throughout this season, mostly due to their success on 3rd and 4th down. The Blue Devils will have to continue to move the chains and minimize E.J. Manuel’s impact on the game. With a banged up defense, the Blue Devils will need to control the clock in this one. A healthier Desmond Scott and Juwan Thompson should help the Blue Devils move the ball more effectively on the ground, and the emergence of freshman Jamison Crowder gives Sean Renfree yet another weapon to work with.

Explosives

The Seminoles feature 7 players who average over 10 yards per reception. The Blue Devils feature 7 players who average over 10 yards per reception. With two top passing offenses, explosive plays are going to be the norm in this game, but it is likely to be the team who is able to come up with an explosive play on defense or special teams that will leave Wallace Wade with a win. Neither team has a kick or punt return for a touchdown yet this season, though both have the athletes to make it happen. The Blue Devils’ secondary should look to capitalize on errant throws against a team that averages 2 interceptions per game.

Rushing TDs

Duke 12, FSU 5

Coach Cut says, “When you run out of room to throw the football, find a way to run the ball in.” Despite the loss of QB Brandon Connette, RB Desmond Scott, and RB Josh Snead, the Blue Devils have been successful rushing the football in the red zone during their three game winning streak. With both offenses likely to move the ball at will, red zone efficiency will be crucial to staying in the game. This is an area where the Blue Devils will have to continue to be successful if they hope to pull of the upset.

Field Goals

FSU 8/8, Duke 3/9

FSUs Dustin Hopkins is one of the top placekicker in college football, and the Blue Devils are excited to have their own All-American kicker back near 100% after a week off. After a dismal start, Snyderwine has been solid over the past two contests, converting FGs of 40 and 27 yards. Coach Cutcliffe has been especially enthusiastic about Duke’s work in the kicking game during the off week, and a key special teams play could be the difference in this game.

Penalties

Duke 22-193 yards, FSU 47-406 yards

If you were to wonder why the Seminoles are on a 3 game losing streak, there are two statistics that should jump out at you. A turnover margin of -7 and an average of over 80 yards in penalties per game. FSU has not played good fundamental football, while the Blue Devils have played nearly mistake-free football over their past two games. Duke will have to continue that trend this week against a talented FSU team. If the Seminoles continue to make costly mistakes, the Blue Devils will have to be ready to capitalize.

PREDICTION

The Blue Devils have won 3 games in a row, but are 0-16 all-time against the Seminoles. One of those streaks is destined to end on Saturday. Florida State has struggled with turnovers this season, but the Blue Devil defense has struggled to consistently create turnovers. If Duke is able to force a few costly turnovers, there could be an upset brewing in Wallace Wade Stadium. After three straight losses and with a healthier E.J. Manuel, expect the Seminoles to have a strong bounce-back performance against Duke. Both teams will have success on offense, and the opportunistic defense will emerge the victor.

FSU 31, Duke 24

Duke Football

ChantRant helps preview Florida State

Florida State will travel to Durham to take on the Blue Devils for the first time since 2007 on Saturday.

After a week off to rest and heal, the Blue Devils will ride their three-game winning streak into the heart of their ACC schedule. Preseason favorite Florida State will travel to Durham on Saturday, and while things are looking up for the Blue Devils, the Seminoles' season took a turn for the worse after an injury to QB E.J. Manuel. FSU will enter Saturday's matchup in the midst of a three-game losing streak, but with a healthy Manuel, they will be a stiff test for the young Blue Devils.

To give us additional insight into the Seminoles' recent struggles, BDN welcomes in Rich from ChantRant.com. Be sure to check out BDN's half of the Q&A Exchange on their site as well. Thanks for your help, Rich!

BDN: As the consensus preseason pick for ACC Champion, expectations were obviously high for the Seminoles in 2011. What is the mood in Tallahassee after three straight tough losses to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest?
 You know about the five stages of grief? It’s been something like that. After the final gun last Saturday, the mood was appropriate to the opponent: a Wake. A day later it had turned to anger (“How could this happen!?” “What’s up with our well paid coaching staff!?,” etc.). Depression was mixed in there somewhere. Then a grudging acceptance of the Seminole’s swan dive from the Top Ten. Now FSU’s faithful (at least the majority) are rallying behind the team, remembering the Noles have been down before and bounced back, while looking ahead to a better 2012 with a more experienced corps of young talent.

QB E.J. Manuel is expected to start for the Seminoles on Saturday

BDN: Redshirt-freshman Clint Trickett stepped in after E.J. Manuel was injured against Oklahoma. Trickett started the past two games, but Manuel replaced him last week at Wake Forest. Can you give us a brief scouting report on Trickett and Manuel? How do you expect them to be used against Duke on Saturday?
 Jimbo Fisher had made it clear that E.J. Manuel is his starting QB -- and that was even before Clint Trickett had a poor start at Wake. So unless E.J. is injured against Duke, I doubt you’ll see Trickett. The scary part, though, is that doctors had told Jimbo before the Wake game that E.J. was not completely healed from a shoulder injury against Oklahoma. And if E.J. takes a nasty hit, he could be out for up to six weeks. For that reason, E.J. was one dimensional against the Deacs: all pass, no designed runs. I’d expect the same against Duke. And FYI, if Trickett DOES enter the game for whatever reason, FSU also becomes one dimensional. The redshirt freshman QB, who’s the son of FSU’s offensive line coach Rick Trickett, is not physical or fast enough to present a run threat -- at least not this season.

BDN: After finishing 2nd in the ACC a year ago, FSU has really struggled to run the ball consistently this season, ranking last in the ACC at just over 85 yards per game. What has been the source of the Seminoles' struggles on the ground and how can they get back on track?
Blame it mostly on the offensive line. FSU graduated two excellent linemen -- both on last year’s Outland Trophy watch list. Since the 2011 season kicked off, one senior OL (Datko) is out with a shoulder injury; another (Spurlock) is limited by lingering effects of a concussion. Quality depth that should be filling those spots was lost due to various issues over the past few years. That leaves little continuity, with one senior tackle surrounded by underclassmen -- including true freshmen -- and one junior, a JC transfer. Given all that chaos, the OL is a work in progress from week to week. And that’s a nice way to put it.  

BDN: Mark Stoops took over the FSU defense for Mickey Andrews last season, and though there were some growing pains, the unit performed well, finishing 1st in the ACC in scoring defense. After a promising start, the defense has allowed 70 points over the last two games. What are the areas of concern and how do you expect the Seminoles will try to stop the Blue Devils' potent passing attack?
There are concerns at linebacker and in the secondary. No doubt Jimbo Fisher is wrestling with how much of a youth movement to employ to address those concerns. My guess is he’ll go mostly with experienced guys rather than experiment. That’s especially true for the secondary, where two upper classmen have underperformed since a strong showing against no. 1 Oklahoma. In fact, I expect Coach Cutliffe to pick on that duo all day with the pass ’n catch combo of Sean Renfree and Conner Vernon. But you can be sure FSU will attempt to do the same. Both teams top the ACC in passing (FSU is first with 325.4 ypg; Duke 2nd with 311.6), while the Noles and Devils are at the bottom of the league in run yards. Fans of the aerial game should get their money’s worth on Saturday.

BDN: Florida State and Duke last met in 2007, and the Blue Devils are 0-16 all-time against the Seminoles. This will be the teams' first meeting in the David Cutcliffe and Jimbo Fisher eras. Duke is riding a 3-game winning streak, while FSU has dropped 3 in a row. What do you expect to see from this matchup Saturday afternoon in Wallace Wade Stadium?
It all depends on which FSU team shows up. We don’t know how much player confidence is shaken after the Wake upset. If the Noles have been able to rebound emotionally and physically, fired up to make a statement and turn their season around -- AND reduce the number of dumb penalties and careless turnovers -- expect a team that will battle til the end. But if the guys in garnet and gold come out tight and tentative, and worst of all not playing as a team, it could be a long afternoon.

BDN: Thanks for your insight, Rich!

Duke Football

Stats Update: Blue Devils Shine in the Red Zone

With wins over Tulane and Florida International, Duke heads into their Bye Week with a 3-2 record riding a three game win streak. In the two wins, the Blue Devils racked up 868 yards total offense and scored 79 points, while allowing Tulane and Florida International to combine for 886 yards total offense and 54 points.

Vast Improvement

Seeing as Red Zone performance was prominently featured in "The Ugly" section of this season's first stats article, it seems appropriate to address the team's success at the top of this update. Duke scored on all 10 Red Zone possessions in the last two games. Eight of the ten scores were touchdowns. Juwan Thompson ran for four touchdowns of 20, 9, 6 and 1 yards. The ability to successfully run the ball in the Red Zone is a development, which should pay huge dividends in the future.

Duke made all four field goals attempted in the two games. Will Snyderwine made three successful kicks and Jeffrey Ijjas was successful on one kick.

While Duke has shown vast improvement in these two areas, it is worth noting they still rank last in the ACC in these categories due to the bad start so it is important for the team to maintain improved performance.

Key Team Accomplishments

Obviously, the most relevant team accomplishment the past two weeks was winning the games. In the final analysis, the final score is the most important statistic.

Passing Offense improved from 297 to 311 yards per game. Duke is now ranked three of 12 in the ACC (up from number five) and 19 of 120 nationally (up from number 25). Numbers for Total Offense are also impressive with Duke’s 409 yards per game ranks six of 12 in the ACC and 56 of 120 nationally.

The ability to sustain long drives results in Duke being ranked two of 12 in the ACC and number 17 of 120 nationally in Time of Possession at 32 minutes and 56 seconds per game. Against Tulane, the Blue Devils reeled off touchdown drives of 18, 12 and 9 plays; while against Florida International they had an 11 play drive which ended with a field goal.

Duke’s four touchdown drives in the FIU game were short drives of 1, 3, 4 and 5 plays.

Even though Duke achieved success running the ball in the Red Zone the past two weeks, overall Rushing Offense remains a concern. At 97 yards per game, Duke is 11 of 12 in the ACC and number 108 nationally.

Key Individual Accomplishments

Conner Vernon leads the ACC in Receptions per Game. His 6.8 receptions per game place him at number 23 in the nation. Vernon is also third in the ACC in Receiving Yards per Game at 101.

Matt Daniels leads the ACC in Passes Defended. His 1.8 passes defended per game place him at number five in the nation. Additionally, he is sixth in the ACC in Tackles with 48.

Sean Renfree is third in the ACC in Passing Average per Game. His 272.2 passing yards per game place him at number 25 in the nation.

Jamison Crowder is sixth in the ACC in Kick Return Average and ninth in the ACC in All Purpose Yards. He is averaging 21.8 yards per kick return and 127.4 all purpose yards per game.

Alex King is fifth in the ACC in Punting averaging 41.2 yards per punt.

Donovan Varner is seventh in the ACC in Receptions per Game at 5.8.

Moving Forward

The next three games will be played in Wallace Wade Stadium so Duke will have home field advantage accompanying momentum gained during the current three game win streak. It is time for the Blue Devils to step up and record a signature victory in order to make the rest of the ACC sit up and take notice. The first opportunity will be on October 15th against the Florida State Seminoles.