BDN Week 10 College Football Picks

An incredibly tough week last week for our pickers, as the Blue Devils fell flat in Tallahassee, and there were upsets across the board in the national games. Vinny Rey is making a charge to move out of last place, correctly picking 17/20 games over the last two weeks. It remains tight at the top in our overall race, with Andrew Slater and Patrick Cacchio holding a 1-game lead over Bob Green. With another tough slate of games this week, the contest is still up for grabs.

Here are this week's overall standings:

Two outstanding night games are on the schedule with National Championship implications, as Oregon travels to USC and Alabama invades Baton Rouge to take on The Hat and the Tigers.  The ACC race is tight, and with Georgia Tech at Maryland, Virginia at NC State, and Duke hosting Clemson, both the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions are still up for grabs. Can the Blue Devils pull off the upset against a top-10 opponent in primetime at Wallace Wade Stadium?

Here are this week's picks:

Mark Watson : The Tigers have too many explosive weapons for Duke to think upset here but stranger things have happened and Duke is undefeated at home.  Clemson 40 Duke 24

Patrick Cacchio: It's called Clemsoning. See it happen live Saturday night in Wallace Wade Stadium. Duke 34, Clemson 31

Bob Green: Coach Cutcliffe stated every portion of the team played poorly in the big loss at Florida State. In order to stay undefeated at Wallace Wade Stadium, Duke must execute near flawless football in all three phases of the game. On offense, Duke must establish the running game in order to set-up the play action pass. Clemson's secondary is vulnerable and the Blue Devils passing game will be able to rack up yards and points against the Tigers as long as the play calling does not become one dimensional. On defense, a consistent pass rush will be vital to success.

Whether the rush consists of the standard four or just three or the whole house on a blitz, it must push Tajh Boyd out of his comfort zone. Duke is fifth in the ACC in Sacks with 19 so the Blue Devils need to put Boyd on the ground a time or two. The coverage teams cannot allow a big kick-off or punt return, which affords Clemson the opportunity to play on a short field. Ross Martin and Will Monday must have a banner evening kicking the ball and the coverage teams have to get downfield and make the tackle.

Key statistic: Clemson is ranked number one in the ACC in Red Zone Defense. Duke must demonstrate explosiveness and score touchdowns from outside the Red Zone. Duke will feed off their home field advantage, take advantage of a Clemson turnover or two, and execute on special teams to pull off a huge upset. Duke 37, Clemson 27

Andrew Slater: Clemson has faced one quality defense (Florida State) all season, but, nonetheless, they've been remarkably efficient on offense this season, exploiting their strength, the passing game, with the trinity of QB Tahj Boyd, WR Sammy Watkins, and WR DeAndre Hopkins. Of all the Blue Devil accomplishments this season, establishing Wallace Wade, where the team has gone undefeated in five games, as a place that one can no longer just waltz into for an easy victory might be at the top. It'll be a relatively competitive game and the Devils will be able to score on the Tigers, but, in the end, the Tigers' offense will be too much. Clemson 41 Duke 27

Bob Harris: A repeat of 1989, as Duke beats the Tigers 42-35

Matt Daniels: The Devils are undefeated at home and looking to show up big on prime time tv..look for it to be a high scoring game. Duke 41-37

Thad Lewis: I’m going to have to go with Clemson even though I love my Blue Devils. We are banged up. I don't think we can stop their offense. 35 to 7.

Vinny Rey: Duke 23 Clemson 21- Duke will continue to cause turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. Clemson will play good defense as well, but Duke will make enough plays to win.

Game Analysis – Duke 69 Winston Salem State 45

 

Curry got minutes for the Blue Devils in their win over WSSU. Photo - Lance King for BDN

Let me start by saying that Cameron Indoor Stadium was a shadow of itself in the Blue Devils' 69-45 exhibition win over Winston Salem State on Thursday evening. And that atmosphere helped provide a backdrop for one of the worst three-point shooting performances by a Mike Krzyzewski coached team, as Duke shot a collective 1 of 17 from the three-point stripe.

The Blue Devils simply were not getting clean looks or, as Krzyzewski put it, players were not ready to catch and shoot. But the program that some feel can win only by hitting the three ball showed that defense could carry them as well. Leading just 18-9 in the first half, Duke went on a 16-1 run to take a commanding 36-13 lead into the locker room.

Duke coasted from there, but the visitors -- who won their conference a season ago -- played them even in the 2nd half, and that raised some eyebrows. Duke struggled finishing off some easy opportunities, and the fastbreak was less efficient than it normally is.

Before you push the panic button, keep in mind that Krzyzewski said his team was tired and would now take three days off before preparing for the season opener against Georgia State next Friday night. With successive games in the Battle of Atlantis just around the corner, it makes sense that he would have practiced his team hard in an effort to see how they'd respond on tired legs -- which may have contributed to the 3-point shooting woes.

The bottom line is that this was an exhibition game, and the staff wanted to start pushing certain buttons as the season nears. And Krzyzewski made sure Seth Curry got some PT in an effort to shake the rust and see how he responds to his nagging injury.

There were two other things which caught my eye as well after viewing the Blue Devils for a second time this season. One was the fact that the true freshmen are ahead of where I thought they'd be. Rasheed Sulaimon has wasted no time getting acclimated at this level, averaging 16.0 ppg in the two contests. And then there is Amile Jefferson, who is at a 13.0 ppg and 4.0 rpg.

Sulaimon is a very active player who is playing within himself and not forcing the issue, committing just 2 turnovers per game. He has a good handle and can guard out front or as the lead pressure. Of Sulaimon, Krzyzewski said, "He is going to be a good player. Not a good one, a really good one." And that bodes well for a team which lost Austin Rivers off of last year's squad.

Jefferson has been very consistent in his play, prompting Krzyzewski to say, "Amile is that guy who doesn't have a position. When he comes in the life meter goes up."

But the most consistent player on the court for Duke was senior captain Mason Plumlee, who went 7 for 7 from the field against Winston Salem State. In the two exhibition games, Plumlee leads the Blue Devils in scoring at 20.5 ppg, while grabbing 10.5 boards per game.

When alluding to Mason's stats in the post-game and reflecting on the win over Western Washington, Krzyzewski commented, "That's who we think he is. (Plumlee). I think that is the norm, and I think he has the chance to have the pop in his game and go for more, so we like where he is."

Plumlee has the potential to be an All-American this season, and his numbers in the exhibition games showed this to be a real possibility. Plumlee was very efficient near the bucket and his free throw shooting is better than a season ago, as so far he has hit 11 of 17 from the line.

All in all, this team is about where it should be as Krzyzewski has used the games to try various lineups while two of his players (Curry and Marshall Plumlee) are on the mend. History shows us that making too much out of any one game, especially an exhibition game, is fruitless. While the win last evening was not especially thrilling, it was just that -- a win.

BDN Clemson at Duke Preview

QB Sean Renfree is listed as probable against Clemson after a concussion last week. - BDN Photo

Clemson at Duke
7:00 PM ET
Saturday, November 3
Durham, North Carolina

TV: ESPN2

Radio: Blue Devil IMG Sports Network

Duke: 6-3 (3-2 ACC), lost at FSU, 48-7
Clemson: 7-1 (4-1 ACC), defeated WF 10/25, 42-13

 

DUKE INJURIES

PROBABLE: QB Sean Renfree (head)
DOUBTFUL: DE Kenny Anunike (lower body), RB Juwan Thompson (upper body)
OUT: CB Jared Boyd (leg), S Brandon Braxton (lower body), LB Kelby Brown (leg), TE Braxton Deaver (leg), S Anthony Young-Wiseman (leg)
OUT FOR SEASON: TE Jack Farrell (leg), WR Blair Holliday, DE Allen Jackson (shoulder), S Corbin McCarthy (shoulder), S Taylor Sowell (leg)

CLEMSON INJURIES

PROBABLE: DB Bashaud Breeland (abdominal strain), DB Garry Peters (back)
OUT FOR SEASON: DB Martin Jenkins (Hernia), QB Tony McNeal (ACL), LB Justin Parker (groin), DB Darius Robinson (ankle), DB Jerrodd Williams (broken leg)

HOW DUKE CAN WIN

After a setback against Florida State, Duke has to get back to playing winning football on Saturday. With three ACC wins already on the year, the Blue Devils have proven they can compete in the conference. On Saturday, they have a chance to prove they can compete with the elite in the conference. For Duke to have a chance to win, it starts with their defense, which will likely be without DE Kenny Anunike. The Tigers have the most skill position talent of any team the Blue Devils have faced this year, and it will be a huge test on an individual level. Ross Cockrell, Lee Butler, and Tony Foster have to find a way to contain Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. No team has found a way to stop this offense, so it will be a matter of keeping them in check. As crazy as it sounds, if the defense can hold Clemson to just 4 or 5 touchdowns, the Blue Devils will have a chance. Clemson's defense has given up its fair share of big plays, and with Sean Renfree probable to play on Saturday, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Blue Devil receivers downfield. Against this defense, Duke should easily be able to put up 4 or 5 touchdowns of their own. In particular, Duke will have to control time of possession and field position; a strong ground game and an error-free kicking game will be essential. For Duke to pull off the upset, they have to keep the score close enough to make a big play late in the 4th quarter to win the game.

HOW CLEMSON CAN WIN

Explosive plays have been the kryptonite for this Duke defense, and Clemson has the weapons to make big plays. Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, and Andre Ellington are all elite talent, and the Duke defense will have their hands full trying to keep them from breaking open big scoring plays. If Clemson can open up a big lead early, the pressure will be on Duke's offense to keep up. Clemson has to bring their "A" game and play with intensity for a full 60 minutes if they hope to win on Saturday, but they do have the superior athletes. The defense will look to be opportunistic, and hold Duke to field goals rather than touchdowns. A big lead for the Tigers will make the Duke offense one-dimensional, and lead to more possessions and points for Clemson.

WHY DUKE WILL WIN

The Blue Devils are undefeated at home, and are hungry to bounce back after a poor showing in Tallahassee. Despite the elite athletes on Clemson's offense, their defense is suspect, and Duke should be able to score points. Duke should have the advantage in the kicking game, and that will play a huge part in the Blue Devils' upset. When a top 10 team loses to an unranked opponent, it's called Clemsoning. Duke 34, Clemson 31

Rasheed Sulaimon talks Duke victory over Winston Salem State

Sumaimon drives to the rim for 2 of his 12 points vs WSSU - Lance King Photo for BDN

Duke defeated Winston Salem State tonight in their final exhibition tune up of the season and BDN caught up to Rasheed Sulaimon after the game to get his thoughts.  Sulaimon ended the game with 12 points and 2 assists. Note - Our game recap will be up late night or in the morning.

5 Questions with Duke DL Sydney Sarmiento


BDN caught up to Duke Defensive Lineman Sydney Sarmiento earlier this week to get his thoughts on the upcoming game with Clemson on Saturday in Wallace Wade Stadium.

You guys have a tough game this week against Clemson and their explosive athletes.  What are your initial thoughts on playing them.

It's a great team, you can't take anything away from them, a great team.  We are going to have our work cut out for us.

Duke did not get the results they wanted in the loss to Florida State.  How can the team bounce back from that kind of performance?

Just forget about what happened in the past and move on because Clemson will present new challenges to us we didn't see last week and we are going to have to improve on what we didn't do well this week.

Duke is already bowl eligible but still going for other honors.  Was last week a bit of a wake up call?

I feel like it was a big wake up and we have to get back to fundamentals and what we do well and stay on top of our game.

The defensive line has improved their play this season.  How do you impact the many younger players around you?

We have challenged ourselves this season unlike we did a year ago and that's one thing I am trying to do with the younger guys.  Like in the Virginia game where they were running all over us in the first half, we stepped up and stopped them in the second.

How much did it help for Duke Football to have great crowd support in the big win over UNC and is it important for the team that the students turn out in force again?

It was important and it surprised me during the game because that's the loudest it's been since I've been at Duke with the exception of maybe the Alabama game.  It was a great atmosphere that lifted me up to play even better and more.  It's more of a sense of pride at home and the five game winning streak is important but we understand we have our work cut out for us this week.

BDN Know the Opponent: Clemson Tigers

It's November prime-time football in Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday night as Duke hosts the Clemson Tigers. Both the Blue Devils and Tigers remain in contention for ACC Division titles, and a win on Saturday night in Durham will only solidify that position. Thanks to the unbalanced ACC schedule, Duke and Clemson have not faced each other since 2008. To give us the inside look at this year's Clemson team, BDN welcomes in Greg Wallace of the Anderson Independent Mail. Greg is among the best at covering the Clemson beat, and his work can be found online at OrangeandWhite.com, as well as his Twitter page.

Under Head Coach Dabo Swinney, Clemson entered the 2012 season with big expectations. The Tigers sit at 7-1, with their lone loss coming against Atlantic Division rival Florida State. Riding a four-game winning streak after their loss, what is your assessment of the Tigers' season so far? What are the expectations for this team among the very loyal Clemson fan base?

Before the season, I projected Clemson at 10-2, so this group is right on track. After winning the program’s first ACC title in 20 seasons, some fans won’t be satisfied without another title this season, but unless Florida State slips up again, that won’t happen. Still, there’s reason to be excited, given that 63 of Clemson’s 85 scholarship players are freshmen and sophomores. Junior DeAndre Hopkins has joined Sammy Watkins as one of the nation’s top receivers, and junior quarterback Tajh Boyd has reduced his mistakes and improved his efficiency.

Brent Venables’ defense struggled through the first half of the season but has shown signs of improvement recently. If Clemson can finish the regular season unblemished, including a win over rival South Carolina, the Tigers would surpass 2011’s 10-4 record and be in the conversation for another BCS-level bowl. That’d be reason to be excited.

Led by Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, and Andre Ellington, Clemson's offense ranks 2nd in the ACC and 10th in the country. Their lowest point total of the season came in their opener against Auburn with 26 points. With this amount of talent at the skill positions, there may not be a way to stop the Clemson offense, but have opposing defense had any success in slowing it down? What advice would you give to an opposing defensive coordinator?

In the second half of last season, defenses started dropping eight defenders and making Boyd find an open man. He forced too many balls, throwing nine interceptions against nine touchdowns in the final six games. This season, a slimmer, smarter Boyd has been more of a factor in the run game which has improved his overall efficiency.

Florida State used press man coverage effectively against Watkins and Hopkins, but Clemson still put up 37 points – the Tigers have scored at least 37 points in their last seven games, the first ACC team to do that since Florida State in 1995. Stopping the Tigers’ offense is very difficult; Boyd had an off day against Virginia Tech after the Hokies sacked him twice in the first three plays, throwing him off his rhythm. But often, it has been a matter of opposing defenses picking their poison.

Clemson's defense has struggled under new coordinator Brent Venables; the Tigers give up an average of 421 yards to opponents, including 183 yards on the ground. What has been the source of the defense's lack of success so far this year? Who are the primary playmakers for the Tiger defense?

The Tigers allowed an average of 523 yards of total offense and 37 points to their first three ACC foes, but they improved significantly over the past two weeks, holding Virginia Tech and Wake Forest to an average of 348 yards and 15 points. Their fundamentals and defensive line pressure have improved – Clemson had seven sacks in its first six games, and has seven in its last two. They’re far from world-beaters – the secondary has struggled with tackling and is injury riddled, with juniors Martin Jenkins and Darius Robinson out with injuries and sophomore Bashaud Breeland slowed by an abdominal strain. And the defensive line needs more than the two sacks its lone upperclassman, senior defensive end Malliciah Goodman, has provided.

Senior “Will” linebacker Jonathan Willard has emerged as the top playmaker, with a team-leading 62 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and two sacks.

With the unbalanced schedule, Duke and Clemson haven't faced each other since 2008, which was Coach Cutcliffe's first year in Durham. How do the Tigers coaches and players feel they match up against Duke? How do you expect the game to unfold on Saturday in Durham?

Clemson’s coaches and players have been highly complementary of Duke, especially since the Blue Devils are bowl-eligible for the first time since 1994. I think everyone expects a far more raucous atmosphere than the one Clemson saw in 2007, when the Tigers coasted to a 47-10 rout. While last week’s 48-7 loss at Florida State might be an anomaly, I expect Clemson to be able to move the ball freely on the Blue Devils. If Clemson’s defense can build on the last two weeks – especially if Sean Renfree is unable to play – it could be a long night for Duke. I expect the Blue Devils to be competitive early on, but Clemson should pull away in the second half for its eighth win of 2012.