Durham, N.C. - The Blue Devil Nation was on hand for today's media press conference where we recorded Kyle Singler's thoughts on the coming ACC Tournament. Singler also addressed his future saying he was undecided on whether he would return to Duke for his senior season.
Hear it for yourself on BDN audio -
March Madness has arrived and first up is the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament in Greensboro. I'll display my bias as a native North Carolinian up front by commenting the ACC Tournament always seems to be were it belongs when being hosted by a city in the Old North State. Not to slight Georgia, but “Atlanta” and “ACC Tournament” are not words which naturally flow together in a sentence describing this venerable event. The same can be said for St. Petersburg and Washington, D.C.
The tournament is about the haves and the have nots. The haves this year are: Duke (1), Maryland (2), Florida State (3), and Virginia Tech (4). The four teams who receive a 1st Round bye on Thursday have the best odds to win it all as they only have to win three straight games. Since the tournament expanded to include 11 teams in 2005 and then 12 teams in 2006, the #1 seed has won three times and the #3 seed has won twice. All five years the tournament was won by either Duke or North Carolina.
The have nots are: Miami (12), NC State (11), North Carolina (10), and Virginia (9). On the surface, these four teams have not a prayer of winning four straight games and earning the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament to represent the ACC as conference champions. However, this is the ACCT and strange events have transpired in the past.
For instance, back in 1983, number four seed NC State defeated number five seed Wake Forest, 71-70; then beat number one seed North Carolina, with Michael Jordan, 91-84, followed by an 81-78 defeat of number two seed Virginia with Ralph Sampson. The ACC Tournament run fueled the “Cardiac Pack” to their run to the National Championship.
In 1976, sixth seed Virginia defeated number three seed NC State, 75-63; then beat number two seed Maryland, 73-65, followed by a 67-62 defeat of number one seed North Carolina. This tournament was in the years between the departure of South Carolina and the addition of Georgia Tech so there were only seven teams participating in the tournament.
In between the haves and have nots is the muddy middle, including: Wake Forest (5), Clemson (6), Georgia Tech (7), and Boston College (8). These teams have a better chance to achieve success than the have nots, due to their somewhat superior track record during the regular season, however, winning four consecutive games is a tall order especially considering the inconsistency associated with these muddy middle ball clubs.
Taking a look at the haves:
Duke (26-5, 13-3): the Blue Devils are playing some very good basketball headed into the post season having won nine of their last 10 games including going a perfect 8-0 in the month of February. Duke is paced by first team All-ACC performers Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler, and second team All-ACC performer Nolan Smith. The Blue Devils fourth starter is Lance Thomas a member of the All-Defensive Team. Brian Zoubek completes the starting line-up. Zoubek has been a dominant inside player since being inserted into the starting line-up the past seven games averaging 11.3 rebounds and 7.3 points per game.
With three seniors and two juniors in the starting line-up, Duke is the most experienced team in the tournament. With four of the five named to one of the All-ACC teams, the Blue Devils have proven to be as skilled as they are experienced. Duke was 3-1 in games against the other bye teams.
Duke will face the winner of the Boston College (8)/Virginia (9) game. The Blue Devils were a combined 3-0 against these two teams during the regular season.
Maryland (24-7, 13-3): the Terrapins earned a share of the ACC regular season title with an exciting 79-72 victory over Duke on March 3rd. Greivis Vasquez is the heart and soul of this team. The ACC Player of the Year plays the game with a solid combination of fiery leadership and icy skill. Maryland will go as far as Mr. Fire and Ice Vasquez takes them and all the way to the championship is a distinct possibility for the Terrapins. ACC Coach of the Year Gary Williams has Maryland running like a fine oiled machine as the Terrapins have won seven games in a row since losing to Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 13th.
Seniors Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne are solid players who bring experience and skill onto the court. Hayes, an outstanding shooter, averages 11 points per game, while shooting .456 on 3-point field goals. Hayes also has an A/TO ratio of 2.4, which is second in the ACC behind Scheyer. Milbourne averages 12.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game.
Sophomore Sean Mosley averages 10.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. ACC All-Rookie Team performer Jordan Williams rounds out the starting five by averaging 9.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Williams provides the Terrapins with a strong inside presence. Maryland was 4-1 in games against the other bye teams.
Maryland will face the winner of the Georgia Tech (7)/North Carolina (10) game. The Terrapins were a combined 2-0 against these two teams during the regular season.
Florida State (22-8, 10-6): Defense is the Seminoles calling card. They lead the ACC in scoring defense giving up only 60.2 points per game. Sophomores Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton were named Third Team All-ACC performers and to the ACC All-Defensive Team. Michael Snaer was named to the ACC All-Rookie Team.
The Seminoles have won seven of their last ten games including four conference wins on the road at Boston College, Virginia, North Carolina, and Miami. Florida State was 1-3 against the other bye teams. They defeated Virginia Tech and lost to Duke once and Maryland twice.
Florida State will face the winner of the Clemson (6)/NC State (11) game. The Seminoles were a combined 0-3 against these two teams during the regular season. It could be a short tournament for Florida State.
Virginia Tech (23-7, 10-6): the Hokies definitely benefited from an easy conference schedule as they played each of the other bye teams only once each and lost all three games. Virginia Tech’s 10 conference wins include two wins over number 11 seed NC State, two wins over number nine seed Virginia, one win over number 12 seed Miami, and one win over number 10 seed North Carolina.
The Hokies have the league’s leading scorer in unanimous First Team All-ACC performer Malcolm Delaney. Dorenzo Hudson was named Third Team All-ACC.
Virginia Tech will face the winner of the Wake Forest (5)/Miami (12) game. The Hokies were a combined 2-1 against these two teams during the regular season.
Moving on to the muddy middle:
Wake Forest (5) and Clemson (6) are both teams with the potential to make some noise in the tournament. If they can win on Thursday, against Miami (12) and NC State (11) respectively, they will face teams in the Quarterfinals on Friday with which they match-up nicely.
Wake Forest versus Virginia Tech is an intriguing game. The Hokies defeated the Demon Deacons in Blacksburg, 87-83. The loss to Virginia Tech started a four game slide for Wake Forest. With the slide ended via a 70-65 win over Clemson, it isn’t hard to envision the Demon Deacons advancing to the Semi-Finals.
Clemson versus Florida State is a game where the lower seeded Tigers will be favored to win. Clemson defeated Florida State twice in the regular season. Beating a team three times in one season is often difficult to achieve but it is much better going into the so called “rubber match” as the 2-0 team rather than being the 0-2 team.
Georgia Tech (7) is desperately in need of a couple of wins to secure an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. If they lose to North Carolina (10) on Thursday, the only dancing the Yellow Jackets will be doing is in the NIT. With the Tar Heels reeling from their total beat-down at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils, the relevant question is whether or not North Carolina shows up ready to play. If the Tar Heels show up, it would not be surprising to see them knock off the Yellow Jackets and send Paul Hewitt job hunting.
Boston College (8) should handle Virginia (9) who is without leading scorer Sylvan Landesberg who was kicked off the team due to failing to meet academic responsibilities. However, the Cavaliers gave Maryland a battle in the last game of their regular season so nothing is guaranteed for the Eagles.
Discussing the muddy middle covered the have nots as well so let’s move on and discuss tournament expectations. First off, I expect there will be some upsets. The higher seeded teams will not win every game; however, a Duke (1) versus Maryland (2) Championship Game is a strong likelihood. In fact, I will go on record and state I expect Duke versus Maryland in the Championship Game.
Which higher seeded teams will lose? I expect Georgia Tech will lose to North Carolina; Florida State will lose to Clemson, and Virginia Tech will lose to Wake Forest.
Which team is going to win it all? Well, let’s not get carried away…I’ll make that prediction when the Semi-Finals are in the books.
Enough talk, let’s tip the ball and get on with the games….
Didn't we just do this? Another consequence of the unbalanced conference schedule is Duke and Maryland playing each other twice with just 17 days separating the two contests. With the Blue Devils in 1st Place at 12-2 and Maryland in 2nd Place with an 11-3 record, this year's schedule sets up nicely for hoops fanatics jonesing for marquee match-ups. A Duke victory locks-up the ACC Regular season crown for the Blue Devils.
Back on February 12th, Blue Devil nation previewed the first contest and identified three key elements to the game. Let's revisit those key elements:
1. Outside shooting: Duke is shooting .394 on the season from behind the 3-point arc. However, in the 13 games played in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke is averaging .442. Maryland is eighth in the league in 3-point field goal percent defense. Duke needs to knockdown the long ball in this game.
2. Rebounding: Duke leads the ACC in rebounding margin at +6.6. Maryland is 11th at +1.2. Duke is second in the ACC in offensive rebounds averaging 14.6 per game. Duke is bigger and stronger and will need to be aggressive on the glass.
3. Assists and turnovers: Both Duke and Maryland take care of the basketball with a 1.3 assists to turnover ratio. Maryland is second in the ACC with 8.4 steals per game. Neither team can afford to give the other extra possessions in a game this analyst expects to be decided in the last couple of minutes.
In the 77-56 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke more than doubled up Maryland from behind the 3-point arc outscoring the Terrapins 15-6. Duke shot 33.3 percent (5-15) against Maryland’s 15.4 percent (2-13). Jon Scheyer led the way with a 3-4 performance from downtown for the Blue Devils.
On the glass, Duke outrebounded Maryland 39-34. Brian Zoubek put in a career performance against the Terrapins with 17 rebounds and 16 points. Eight of Zoubek’s rebounds were offensive. Duke scored 20 second chance points to Maryland’s 12.
The assists statistic was basically even as Duke recorded 12 with Maryland having 10. However, turnovers were a factor as Maryland turned it over 14 times to Duke’s seven.
Basketball is actually a pretty simple game. Shoot the ball, rebound the ball, and take care of the ball. Duke executed these fundamentals better on February 13 and came away with a 21 point victory. The key to winning on March 3 will once again be superior execution of fundamentals.
Updating the Maryland player’s statistics:
Maryland is led by senior guard Greivis Vasquez (6′6″ 190) who averages 19.5 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game. Vasquez plays 33.5 minutes per game.
Senior forward Landon Milbourne (6′7″ 207) is Maryland’s second leading scorer at 13 points per game. Milbourne also averages 5 rebounds and plays 29.7 minutes per game.
Senior guard Eric Hayes (6′4″ 184) is a deadly 3-point shooter making 45.5 percent (55 of 121) on the year. Hayes averages 10.9 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.5 rebounds per game. Hayes plays 30.6 minutes per game.
Sophomore Sean Mosley (6′4″ 210) contributes 10.9 points, 2.7 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game in 28.3 minutes of playing time.
Freshman Jordan Williams (6′9″ 245) averages 9.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game in 24.1 minutes of playing time.
Off the bench, Maryland has four players averaging double digit minutes: Cliff Tucker (15.3), Dino Gregory (20.3), Adrian Bowie (15.4), and James Padgett (10). Maryland has more depth inside this season but they are a smaller team than Duke.
This will be senior night for Vasquez, Milbourne, and Hayes, and emotions will be high. Those guys desire to go out winners in their last home game. Throw in the ACC Regular season title and number one seed in the ACC Tournament that Duke can secure with a victory and the stakes are in the stratosphere.
In the first preview, Blue Devil nation discussed both teams keeping emotions in check and preventing the other from jumping out to an adrenalin fueled early lead. The same caution applies to this game. In the end, this game will be a tighter and tougher contest than the game in Cameron Indoor Stadium. The stakes are higher and the team with superior execution will prevail.
The Cavaliers have lost six straight games, while Duke is riding a seven game win streak. Duke won those seven games by an average of 12.86 points, while Virginia lost their six games by an average of 14 points. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Duke is playing strong basketball and is contention for a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, while Virginia is free falling and fighting for their NIT Life.
Virginia is a team with serious offensive issues. The Cavaliers average 67 points per game, which is last in the ACC, and haven't scored 70 points in a game since January 28th when they lost to Virginia Tech 76-71. The Cavaliers are 12th in the ACC in seven statistical categories, while Duke is 1st in the ACC in 11 categories.
The statistic that jumps out and grabs me from this group is Virginia being 12th in 3-point field goal percentage defense and Duke being 1st in 3-point field goal percentage. The Cavaliers must defend the 3-point line against Duke better than they usually do or it could be a very long night.
Sylvan Landesberg (6'6" 207) is fifth in the ACC in scoring at 17.4 points per game and Mike Scott (6'8" 240) is 18th at 12.8 points. Duke has three of the top seven scorers in the league in Jon Scheyer (18.8), Nolan Smith (17.9), and Kyle Singler (16.9).
In rebounding, Scott leads the Cavaliers averaging 7.2 rebounds per game, which is tenth in the ACC. For Duke, Singler averages 7.2 (11th) and Brian Zoubek 7.0 (13th).
For the Blue Devils, Brian Zoubek has been outstanding the past four games averaging 12.25 rebounds and 9.75 points per game. Over the seven game winning streak, Zoubek’s numbers are 9.28 rebounds and 6.71 points per game. Keeping Zoubek on the court and engaged in the game should be a priority for Duke as he is providing the Blue Devils with the strong physical presence in the post that has been missing the past several years.
Virginia is smaller upfront than Duke and the Cavaliers will have to scheme a method to deal with the Blue Devils’ ability to dominant the glass if they are to have a chance to win this game. During Duke’s current seven game winning streak, the Blue Devils are averaging 19 second chance points.
In addition to Scott, Virginia starts Jerome Meyinsse (6’9” 235) in the front court. Meyinsse averages 5.1 points and 4 rebounds per game.
In the backcourt, Sammy Zeglinski (6’0” 180)) and Calvin Baker (6’2” 190) start alongside Landesberg. Zeglinski averages 9 points per game and Baker averages 3.3.
The keys to the game will be:
1. Who guards Kyle Singler? Landesberg is the obvious choice but does Coach Bennett desire to assign his best offensive option a tough defensive assignment? Singler’s play has seen resurgence in recent games. He recorded a 25 points, 10 rebounds double-double in the win over Virginia Tech, 22 points and 11 rebounds in the win over Miami, and 19 points and 9 rebounds in the win over Carolina. Checking Singler is a tall order for the Cavaliers.
2. Rebounding: Duke has been dominating the glass this year. They are 1st in the ACC in rebounding margin at +6.5. Virginia is 10th at +1.5. Duke is 1st in offensive rebounds averaging 15.3 per game, while Virginia is last averaging 10.7 per game.
3. 3-point shooting: Duke is 1st in the ACC in 3-pointers made and 3-point field goal percentage, while Virginia is last in 3-point field goal percentage defense. This is a game where the Blue Devils will have the opportunity to take a lot of long range shots. They need to make them.
This is a bit of a trap game for Duke as the Blue Devils must ensure they take care of business and don’t get caught looking ahead to the trip to College Park. Virginia is a team in a tailspin and they simply do not have the horses to compete with the Blue Devils. Duke should win by double digits. However, the operable word is “should” and that is why they play the games on the court and not on paper.
The Atlantic Coast Conference tracks 21 team statistics; Duke is ranked number one in 12 of the categories and number two in a 13th category. Virginia Tech is not ranked number one in any category, however, they are ranked number two in two categories: scoring defense and turnover margin. Virginia Tech is last in the conference in field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, and assists.
In the individual categories, Virginia Tech's Malcolm Delaney is the conference scoring leader at 20.2 points per game. Dorenzo Hudson is 12th at 14 ppg. For Duke, Jon Scheyer is 2nd at 19.1 ppg, Nolan Smith is 4th at 17.7 ppg, and Kyle Singler is 8th at 16.6 ppg.
Reviewing the statistics indicates this game should be a mismatch as Virginia Tech is a team with serious offensive issues. However, reaching that conclusion would be narrow-minded as one must take into account Virginia Tech's 8-3 conference record. As usual, the Hokies know how to win ugly.
In conference play, the Hokies are 6-0 at home and have road wins over Virginia and N.C. State. Out of conference, they have won at Penn State and at Iowa, teams which are currently tenth and 11th in the Big 10. Virginia Tech’s road resume isn’t going to impress anyone and Duke is undefeated in Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is more evidence the game is a mismatch.
It would be easy to describe this game as a showdown between Duke’s big three of Scheyer, Smith, and Singler; and Virginia Tech’s marquee players of Delaney, Allen, and Hudson. In reality, the outcome will most likely be determined by the play of the supporting cast. Lance Thomas (6’8” 225) is a defensive specialist who can impact games by containing the opponent’s better players. Look for Thomas to draw a tough defensive assignment.
Senior Brian Zoubek (7’1” 260) has played great in recent games. He started for the first time this season and scored 16 points and hauled in 17 rebounds in Duke’s win over Maryland. He followed up with 10 points, five rebounds, and five steals in the win at Miami. Zoubek has been previously limited against smaller quicker teams, but his footwork and defensive positioning have been excellent recently. Zoubek credited his physical conditioning for the improved play.
Sophomore Miles Plumlee (6’10 240) and freshman Mason Plumlee (6’10” 230) are two additional members of the supporting cast who could sway the outcome of this contest. The brothers combine to contribute 10.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game though they have been limited at times with foul trouble.
The Blue Devils have a size advantage over Virginia Tech as the Hokies biggest starter is Jeff Allen (6’7” 230). Victor Davila (6’8” 245) averages 5.8 points and 4.6 rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench. Duke leads the ACC in rebounding margin at +6.3, while Virginia Tech is ninth at +2.9. However, Virginia Tech is fifth in offensive rebounds averaging 13.3 per game. It is imperative Duke utilize their size advantage to keep Virginia Tech off the offensive glass.
The keys to the game will be:
Limiting fouls: Virginia Tech is a woeful offensive team and they rely upon free throws to score points. The Hokies average 18 of their 72.6 points from the charity stripe. Duke must contain Virginia Tech’s guard’s ability to penetrate into the lane without fouling. Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers will need to provide solid help defense.
Rebounds: Duke must capitalize on their size advantage and control the glass. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in rebounding margin and should be able to score second chance points via offensive rebounds.
Supporting cast: One or two of Duke’s rotation players four through nine will need to step up with solid games to tip the balance in Duke’s favor.
While on paper, Virginia Tech appears to be overmatched against Duke this will be a tough battle between two top tier ACC teams. Virginia Tech has played Duke tough in Cameron Indoor Stadium in the past, defeating Duke 69-67 in 2007, and losing 77-75 in 2005, on Sean Dockery’s halfcourt buzzer beater.
Duke has won the last three games in the series. Last season, Duke won 72-65 in Blacksburg and 69-44 in Durham. In 2008, Duke won 81-64 in Blacksburg. Expect tomorrow’s game to be a close affair decided over the last five minutes of the contest.
#7 Duke (20-4, 8-2 ACC) host unranked Maryland (16-6, 6-2 ACC) on Saturday afternoon at 1 pm in a game which will determine first place in the ACC standings. This will be the 1,000th game at Duke for Coach Mike Krzyzewski. Duke defeated Maryland three times last season and has won the previous five meetings. Maryland last defeated Duke on February 28, 2007.
Maryland is led by senior guard Greivis Vasquez (6'6" 190) who averages 18.1 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game. Vasquez is a crafty player who likes to push the tempo and is a very good passer in Coach Gary Williams' flex offense. Vasquez plays 32.5 minutes per game.
Senior forward Landon Milbourne (6'7" 207) is Maryland's second leading scorer at 14.5 points per game. Milbourne also averages 5.4 rebounds and plays 30.3 minutes per game.
Senior guard Eric Hayes (6'4" 184) is a deadly 3-point shooter making 46.1 percent (47 of 102) on the year. Hayes averages 11.1 points, 3.4 assists, and 2.5 rebounds per game. Hayes plays 30.4 minutes per game.
Sophomore Sean Mosley (6'4" 210) contributes 11.5 points, 3 assists, and 5.6 rebounds per game in 28.1 minutes of playing time.
Freshman Jordan Williams (6'9" 245) averages 8.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game in 22.9 minutes of playing time. Williams is touted as having great hands.
Off the bench, Maryland has four players averaging double digit minutes: Cliff Tucker (15.2), Dino Gregory (19.9), Adrian Bowie (16.5), and James Padgett (11.2). Maryland has more depth inside this season but they are a smaller team than Duke.
Duke and Maryland have had eight common opponents on the season. In out of conference games, both teams have beaten UNC-Greensboro and lost to Wisconsin. In conference, both teams have beaten UNC, Florida State, and Boston College. Maryland has beaten N.C. State who defeated Duke, while Duke has beaten Clemson and Wake Forest who both defeated the Terrapins.
The Blue Devils will be without starter and defensive specialist Lance Thomas who suffered a severe bone bruise in his right knee when he collided with Larry Drew II during the Carolina game. Replacing Thomas’ minutes will require Coach Krzyzewski to be creative with the rotation. Coach Krzyzewski has stated he expects Dawkins to play increased minutes with Kyle Singler rotating from small forward to power forward.
Another line-up which will surely see time together will be Brian Zoubek and Mason Plumlee together with Scheyer, Smith, and Singler. This is Duke’s most effective non-Thomas line-up from a +/- perspective.
The keys to the game will be:
1. Outside shooting: Duke is shooting .394 on the season from behind the 3-point arc. However, in the 13 games played in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke is averaging .442. Maryland is eighth in the league in 3-point field goal percent defense. Duke needs to knockdown the long ball in this game.
2. Rebounding: Duke leads the ACC in rebounding margin at +6.6. Maryland is 11th at +1.2. Duke is second in the ACC in offensive rebounds averaging 14.6 per game. Duke is bigger and stronger and will need to be aggressive on the glass.
3. Assists and turnovers: Both Duke and Maryland take care of the basketball with a 1.3 assists to turnover ratio. Maryland is second in the ACC with 8.4 steals per game. Neither team can afford to give the other extra possessions in a game this analyst expects to be decided in the last couple of minutes.
With the celebration for Coach Krzyzewski’s birthday, his 1,000th game as head coach at Duke, and first place in the ACC on the line, the atmosphere will be electric inside Cameron Indoor Stadium. Both teams must be cautious of emotions to ensure the other team doesn’t jump out to an adrenalin fueled early lead. Once the teams settle in and commence execution of their game plans, this should be a very exciting basketball game.
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